中辉期货螺纹钢早报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short term, and arrange short positions in the medium term [1][8][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short term [1][10][12] - Coking Coal: Bullish [1][14][16] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with oscillations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent de - capacity and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment, and expectations have improved. The supply - demand situation varies among different varieties, with some showing signs of the off - season, while others maintain a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship [1][4][5] - The iron ore market has a neutral supply - demand structure. Attention should be paid to the introduction of supply - side reform policies at the industrial level, and short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven [1][8][9] - The coke and coking coal markets have seen an improvement in market sentiment, with short - term bullish trends [1][12][16] - The ferroalloy market is dominated by market sentiment, with manganese silicon and silicon iron expected to oscillate within a certain range [1][18][19] 3. Summary by Variety Steel a. Rebar - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand have both declined month - on - month, total inventory has decreased slightly, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Hot metal production has dropped below 2.4 million tons, but the absolute level remains high [1][4] - Market sentiment: Driven by de - capacity and anti - involution policies, market sentiment has strengthened, and expectations have improved [1][4][5] - Price range: [3110, 3150] [1] b. Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply - demand: Production and apparent demand have both declined slightly month - on - month, and inventory has changed little. The supply - demand is generally balanced, with limited fundamental contradictions [1][4] - Market sentiment: The current macro - sentiment is strong, and there are news of production restrictions in some areas, leading to a bullish trend in trading based on sentiment and expectations [1][5] - Price range: [3250, 3290] [1] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: On the demand side, hot metal production is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. On the supply side, the shipping rush has ended, but arrivals are still increasing, and both shipments and arrivals will increase in the future. Port inventories are decreasing, and steel mills are replenishing stocks out of rigid demand, resulting in a neutral supply - demand structure [1][8] - Market sentiment: The anti - involution policy has been mentioned again. Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to the introduction of supply - side reform policies at the industrial level [1][8][9] - Price range: [750, 785] [1] Coke - Supply - demand: The production of independent coke enterprises has declined recently, but the production of steel mills' coke enterprises remains high. The high absolute level of hot metal production guarantees the demand for raw materials. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high [1][12] - Market sentiment: The short - term market sentiment has improved, and the market is oscillating with a bullish trend [1][12][13] - Price range: [1510, 1540] [1] Coking Coal - Supply - demand: Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with an absolute level lower than that of the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase in the future. The upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high [1][16] - Market sentiment: Spot transactions have improved, and the overall market sentiment has improved, with a short - term bullish trend [1][16][17] - Price range: [900, 930] [1] Ferroalloys a. Manganese Silicon - Supply - demand: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The cost of manganese ore currently supports prices, but there are expectations of cost loosening due to the decline in electricity costs in multiple production areas and the slight drop in the far - month quotes of some mines. The actual demand may be under pressure as the off - season approaches [1][18][19] - Market sentiment: Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, with prices oscillating with a bullish trend. In the medium term, prices may be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton [1][19][20] - Price range: [5685, 5880] [1] b. Silicon Iron - Supply - demand: Both supply and demand have decreased. After the reduction of electricity prices in production areas, the cost line has further declined. The factory inventory level is still relatively high, and some factories have plans to resume production, while the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction [1][18][19] - Market sentiment: Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven, with limited supply - demand contradictions, and the market is expected to oscillate within a certain range [1][19][20] - Price range: [5390, 5580] [1]