有色金属日报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend, and short positions should be held or option strategies can be attempted [1] - The Shanghai aluminum futures have short - term correction pressure, while the cast aluminum alloy has certain resilience, and the upward space of alumina is limited [2] - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds should be continued [3] - The lead price continues the low - level consolidation trend, and there is a possibility of further decline if overseas low - price lead is imported [5] - The nickel market has room for rebound, waiting for a better short - selling position [6] - The tin market should continue the short - selling direction [7] - The lithium carbonate market is in the area for short - position layout [8] - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [10] Summary by Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillated at 78,000 yuan on Tuesday. The spot copper price was 77,995 yuan, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed to 540 yuan. The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum futures had short - term correction pressure after breaking the upward trend line. The cast aluminum alloy had certain resilience. The upward space of alumina was limited due to over - capacity [2] Zinc - The inventories of both domestic and foreign zinc markets increased, and the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. The short - selling on rebounds strategy should be continued [3] Lead - The LME lead inventory increased significantly, dragging down the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead was relatively resistant to decline, but there was a risk of further decline if overseas low - price lead was imported [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price dropped sharply, and there was room for rebound. The stainless steel market was in the off - season, and the inventory was at a high level [6] Tin - The Shanghai tin price opened a decline and was supported at 262,000 yuan. The short - selling direction should be continued [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated and rebounded, but the inventory continued to rise. The short - position layout area had arrived [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose significantly, and the fundamentals improved marginally. It was expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to rebound, and the short - term trend was expected to be volatile and upward, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [10]