一二季度经济数据解读：经济表现符合预期，物价回升成为重点

Economic Performance - In Q2 2025, GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a slowdown from Q1, with nominal GDP growth at 3.9%, down by 0.7 percentage points from Q1[2] - For the first half of 2025, GDP growth reached 5.3%, exceeding the annual target of around 5%[5] - The contribution rates of the three drivers of economic growth in Q2 were 52.3% from final consumption, 24.7% from capital formation, and 23% from net exports[2] Consumption Trends - In June, retail sales growth slowed to 4.8% year-on-year, with cumulative growth at 5%[2] - The decline in restaurant income was significant, dropping by 5 percentage points to 0.9% in June[11] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy's impact weakened in June, affecting consumer spending[19] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment in H1 2025 totaled 248,654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, down from 3.7%[23] - Manufacturing investment saw a significant decline, with a growth rate of 7.5%, down by 1 percentage point[25] - Infrastructure investment growth was 4.6% in H1, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous month[31] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year in H1 2025, with residential investment down by 10.4%[51] - The sales area of new residential properties decreased by 3.5% in H1, indicating ongoing demand weakness[40] - In June, the prices of second-hand homes in first-tier cities turned downward, while new home prices in first-tier cities showed a narrowing decline[40] Industrial Production - Industrial added value in June grew by 6.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 6.4% for H1[53] - The manufacturing sector's growth was driven by strong performance in the automotive and high-tech industries, with growth rates of 11.4%[59] - The production-sales rate in June was 93.3%, indicating a significant drop and suggesting overproduction relative to demand[63]