中国期货每日简报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - On July 14, equity indices and CGB futures declined, while commodity futures showed a relatively balanced performance with new energy metals leading the gains [12][15]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price increase is driven by supply speculation, and in the long run, the surplus logic remains. It is recommended to wait for inventory to rise and price to rebound before short - selling [19][24]. - Crude oil's production increase negative impact is being digested, and under the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, it is expected to fluctuate. The rebound space is limited by the inventory build - up expectation [27][31]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to macro sentiment and inventory build - up rhythm. In the medium - and long - term, there are concerns about consumption, and a high - level short - selling strategy is advisable [33][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 14, equity indices and CGB futures declined. Among commodity futures, new energy metals led the gains. The top three gainers were lithium carbonate, silicon metal, and crude oil, while the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy [12][13][15]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - On July 14, lithium carbonate rose 3.7% to 66480 yuan/ton. The price increase is due to supply speculation under improved fundamentals, with weak supply - demand drive. In the long run, the surplus logic remains. Short - term upstream - downstream game is intense, and warehouse receipts have decreased rapidly. It is recommended to avoid risks and short - sell at a high level after inventory rises and price rebounds [19][23]. - Market attention to the photovoltaic industry's "anti - involution" and supply - side reform has increased, and lithium carbonate has followed the upward trend. The "Yichun Mines Approval Problem" news had no impact on production. Supply - demand fundamentals have not changed much, and warehouse receipt volume is the key. Supply has increased, but imports may decline in July - August. Demand growth was high from January to June, and the July off - season impact is limited. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory has decreased in July, but may recover in August. Policy changes include domestic "anti - involution" sentiment and the US "Big Beautiful Act" affecting demand [20][22][24]. 1.2.2 Crude Oil - On July 14, crude oil rose 2.6% to 527.5 yuan/barrel. The negative impact of production increase is being digested, and inventory build - up is limited. Under the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, it is expected to fluctuate. The rebound space is limited by the inventory build - up expectation. Refinery operating rates are high during the peak demand season, but wait for refinery gross profit and operating rate to decline and inventory to accumulate [27][30][31]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Aluminum - On July 14, aluminum fell 1.4% to 20415 yuan/ton. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate due to macro sentiment and inventory build - up rhythm. In the medium - and long - term, there are concerns about consumption. China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased in June, and downstream industry average operating rate decreased slightly this week. Short - term anti - involution expectation supports the price, but fundamentals show marginal weakening, and the subsequent price depends on real consumption [33][34][36]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - China's goods trade import and export in the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a YoY increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, and imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7%. In June, import and export growth rates were positive and rising [39]. - China will implement zero - tariff treatment for 53 African countries having diplomatic relations with it. Since December 1 last year, China has given zero - tariff treatment to all least - developed countries having diplomatic relations with it, and imports from these countries achieved double - digit growth in the first half of this year [39]. - China - US trade decreased by 9.3% YoY in the first half of the year. Affected by the US "reciprocal tariffs", it changed from growth in Q1 to decline in Q2. Recent Geneva and London talks have achieved progress, and both sides are implementing the London Framework outcomes [39][40]. 2.2 Industry News - The increment of China's social financing scale from January to June was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans to the real economy increased by 12.74 trillion yuan, corporate bond net financing was 1.15 trillion yuan, and government bond net financing was 7.66 trillion yuan [40]. - It is reasonable for small and medium - sized banks to appropriately increase bond holdings within the supervision - permitted scope, but they need to balance investment returns and risk - taking [40].