ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-07-15 10:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in credit growth, with government bonds remaining a primary support item. In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan added, surpassing market expectations [9][10] - The structure of social financing shows a significant increase in credit, with a notable rise in government bond issuance, which reached 1.3508 trillion yuan in June, up 503.2 billion yuan year-on-year [10][12] Summary by Sections Social Financing Growth - In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan added, exceeding consensus expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing reached 8.9%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from May [9][10] Credit Situation - New loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, which is higher than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of credit balance was 7.1%, with the growth rate remaining stable compared to the previous month [12][13] - The credit structure indicates that various types of general loans (excluding bills) have increased year-on-year, while the characteristics of bill financing have weakened. Specifically, corporate short-term loans saw a significant increase [13][18] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - In June, M1 growth rate significantly increased, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed. M0, M1, and M2 grew by 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively [6][12] - The total increase in RMB deposits in June was 3.21 trillion yuan, which is 750 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3% [6][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the banking sector, particularly regional banks with strong certainty and advantages, such as Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank. It also highlights the importance of high dividend stability in large banks [6][12]