2025年6月进出口数据传递的信号：6月出口维持高增，下行拐点将近

Export Performance - In June 2025, China's export value in RMB reached 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up from 6.3% in May[2] - Cumulative exports from January to June 2025 totaled 13 trillion yuan, maintaining a year-on-year growth of 7.2%[2] - Exports to Belt and Road countries amounted to 6.56 trillion yuan, growing by 10.8%[2] Trade Dynamics - The "transshipment export" strategy significantly boosted June exports, with global manufacturing PMI rising from 49.5 to 50.3[2] - Exports to non-US economies such as ASEAN, EU, and Africa increased by 18.3%, 8.9%, and 36.6% respectively, contributing 3%, 1.3%, and 1.7% to June's export growth[2] - China's exports to the US fell by 15% in June, an improvement from a 33.6% decline in May, attributed to tariff reductions following Sino-Swiss negotiations[3] Future Outlook - The export downtrend is expected to begin in July or August 2025 due to increasing tariffs and weakening external demand[4] - The US's import growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of 2025, with an estimated total import scale of approximately 4.1 trillion USD and a growth rate of about 7%[3] - The expiration of tariff exemptions in August 2025 may lead to an increase in effective tariff levels, further impacting export dynamics[4] Trade Surplus - In June 2025, the trade surplus was 114.77 billion USD, up from 103.22 billion USD in May, indicating strong support for Q2 economic growth[8] - The total trade surplus for Q2 2025 reached 2.3 trillion yuan, a 26% increase compared to Q2 2024[8] Risks - Potential escalation of Sino-US trade tensions poses a significant risk to export performance[9] - A sharper-than-expected decline in overseas economies could severely impact China's export outlook[9]