SPDB International·2025-07-15 11:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 146 / USD 38, indicating a potential upside of 19% for the Hong Kong stock and 23% for the US stock [1][2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 14.1% year-on-year in Q2, driven by government subsidies and the "618" promotional event, with core e-commerce revenue showing strong growth momentum [1]. - The report anticipates an adjusted net profit of RMB 56 billion for Q2, reflecting the impact of significant investments in the food delivery market, which is expected to lead to short-term profit pressures but also long-term business synergies [2][3]. - The company’s retail revenue is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year in Q2, with growth in the electronics category expected to outpace that of daily necessities [1][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: - FY23: RMB 1,084,662 million - FY24: RMB 1,158,819 million - FY25E: RMB 1,281,189 million - FY26E: RMB 1,352,876 million - FY27E: RMB 1,423,794 million [3][8]. - Adjusted net profit projections are: - FY23: RMB 35,200 million - FY24: RMB 47,827 million - FY25E: RMB 23,596 million - FY26E: RMB 39,823 million - FY27E: RMB 51,251 million [3][8]. Market Performance - The current stock price is HKD 122.4, with a 52-week price range of HKD 94.65 to HKD 192.3, and a total market capitalization of HKD 355,476 million [3][5]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 2,066 million [3]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently valued at 7.3x P/E, which is considered low compared to the adjusted target P/E of 10.0x for FY26E [2][3].