2025年6月金融数据点评：年内社融增速或逐渐筑顶，债市已有赔率

Group 1: Report Overview - Research Report Title: "Year-end Social Financing Growth Rate May Gradually Peak, Bond Market Shows Odds - Commentary on June 2025 Financial Data" [1][4] - Release Date: July 15, 2025 [7] Group 2: Core Views - In June 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of outstanding social financing was +8.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points. Credit growth was strong at the end of the quarter, and government bonds continued to provide support. The year-on-year growth rates of M1 and M2 were 4.6% and 8.3% respectively, both showing month-on-month increases [2][4]. - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, as banks focus on project reserves in the fourth quarter and the issuance of government bonds in the first half is almost complete, the growth rate of outstanding social financing may gradually peak. It is estimated that the annual social financing growth rate will reach a high of around 9.0% in July - August and then gradually decline to around 8.2% by the end of the year [8]. - With the central bank's relatively loose policy stance and the social financing growth rate peaking, the bond market lacks a basis for a deep correction. After the recent adjustment, the bond market has shown odds, and it is recommended to actively allocate when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 1.65% [8]. Group 3: Credit Analysis - In June 2025, new credit was approximately 2.24 trillion yuan, higher than 2.13 trillion yuan in the same period last year. Banks increased credit投放 at the end of the semi - annual period, and the ban on "manual interest supplementation" in the first half of 2024 led to a relatively low base for corporate loans [8]. - Corporate loans: In June, corporate loans increased by about 1.77 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 0.14 trillion yuan. Short - term corporate loans and medium - to - long - term corporate loans increased by 1.16 trillion yuan and 1.01 trillion yuan respectively year - on - year, while bill financing decreased by about 0.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year reduction of about 0.37 trillion yuan [8]. - Household loans: In June, household loans increased by about 0.60 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 267 billion yuan. Short - term and medium - to - long - term household loans both showed slight year - on - year increases, driven by the "618" e - commerce promotion and the summer vacation [8]. Group 4: Social Financing Analysis - In June 2025, the increment of social financing was about 4.20 trillion yuan, mainly supported by on - balance - sheet financing and government bonds. On - balance - sheet financing increased by about 2.39 trillion yuan, and government bonds increased by about 1.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 0.50 trillion yuan [8]. - In July, as it is a season - starting month with characteristics of a "small credit month" and there may be short - term loan maturity pressure, but government bonds are expected to continue to support social financing growth [8]. Group 5: Monetary Analysis - In June, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 both increased month - on - month. Resident and corporate deposits increased by about 2.47 trillion yuan and 1.78 trillion yuan respectively, with year - on - year increases of about 0.33 trillion yuan and 0.78 trillion yuan [8]. - The growth of resident and corporate deposits at the end of the quarter was due to the low base of corporate deposits last year and seasonal factors. Fiscal expenditures at the end of the quarter transferred fiscal deposits to resident and corporate deposits, and the return of wealth management products to the balance sheet also supported deposit data [8].