2025年度·第16期：能源、航运策略周观察

Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil market rating for the current week has been adjusted from relatively strong to neutral and volatile [5] Core Views - Crude Oil: In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%, accelerating marginally from 2% in Q1. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3% due to crude oil destocking and refined oil stockpiling. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices may be weakening, and the further upside for Brent above $70 per barrel is limited [5] - Fuel Oil: Last week, global fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.7% week - on - week and remained at a low level. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore widened [5] - Asphalt: In June, refinery production exceeded the plan, breaking the de - stocking pattern. The increase in asphalt supply is still uncertain, and demand recovery is expected to be delayed [5] - Natural Gas: High temperatures have boosted market demand. In the US, the upside is limited before further strengthening of power demand. In Europe, the market is expected to remain volatile [8] - LPG: Middle East production pressure persists, and the overseas price continues to be weak. The domestic market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with the futures market showing weak volatility [8] - Container Shipping Index (European Route): The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price. In the medium term, freight rates are likely to decline seasonally [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy & Shipping Price Trends - Energy Commodities: Last week, crude - related products continued to rise, with Brent up 3.1%. By - products LPG and fuel oil were weak. The natural gas market showed mixed performance, with European gas up 5.2% and US gas down 0.89%. The steam coal market continued to rebound [4] - Shipping: European route quotes mostly remained stable in late July. US route freight rates bottomed out and stabilized, with SCFI West & East US routes up 5% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively [4] Crude Oil & Oil Products Chain Key Volume and Price Data - Price Trends: The crude oil monthly spread declined from a high. The premium of domestic futures was strong. The spot premium of crude oil declined slightly from a high [10] - Crack Spreads: Overseas gasoline and diesel crack spreads fluctuated, and the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Domestic energy - chemical product crack spreads continued to decline with the rebound of crude oil [12] - Global Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators: The 7 - day average of global commercial flights was down 1.2% year - on - year. The 4 - week average of US refined oil apparent demand was down 1.6% year - on - year [13] - China's Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators: China's ground congestion index was flat year - on - year, and highway truck traffic was up 0.8% year - on - year. The number of domestic flights was up 2% year - on - year [17] - Refining Profits & Refinery Operations: The comprehensive refining profits of refineries in three regions and the refining margins of Chinese refineries are presented in the report, along with refinery capacity utilization rates [19] - China & India Procurement Shipping Schedules: In June, China's above - scale crude oil processing volume was up 8.5% year - on - year, and imports were up 7.4% year - on - year. India's crude oil imports and refining product demand also showed certain trends [22] - Major Oil - Producing Countries' Shipping Schedules: The shipping schedules of major oil - producing countries such as OPEC 9 countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran are presented [24] - US Crude Oil Production: Data on US crude oil production, including production volume, four - week average year - on - year growth rate, and rig counts, are provided [26] - Crude Oil Inventories: Data on on - land commercial inventories, floating storage inventories, and total inventories of crude oil are presented [28] - Refined Oil Inventories: Data on global refined oil inventories, including light distillates, diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil, are provided [31] - Fund Positions: The relative net long positions of management funds in Brent and WTI crude oil are presented [33] Asphalt Key Volume and Price Data - High - Frequency Supply and Demand: The shipment volume of domestic refinery asphalt increased slightly week - on - week, and the cumulative year - on - year increase decreased by 1 percentage point to 7% compared to the end of June [5] - Inventory: Data on domestic asphalt inventories, including refinery inventories and trader inventories, are provided [38] Natural Gas Key Volume and Price Data - Core Spreads: Data on key spreads such as the TTF - balance spread, JKM - TTF spread, and HH forward curve are presented [41] - Short - Term Temperature Forecast: Short - term temperature forecasts for regions such as Northwest Europe, the US, and China are provided [46] - European Consumption and LNG Imports: Data on natural gas consumption and LNG imports in Europe are presented [49] - US Production and Global LNG Exports: Data on US natural gas production and LNG exports from the US, Qatar, and Australia are provided [51] - Inventory Levels and Change Rates: Data on natural gas inventory levels and change rates in the US and Europe are presented [53] LPG Key Volume and Price Data - Core Spreads: Data on key spreads such as the PG - FEI spread, ether - post - carbon - four - civil - gas spread, and Far - East propane - naphtha spread are presented [55] - Inventory Levels: Data on propane inventories in the US, refinery inventories in China, and port storage capacity utilization rates in South and East China are provided [57] Steam Coal Key Volume and Price Data - Trade Spreads and Profits: Data on inland trade shipping profits, high - calorie coal premiums at Bohai Rim ports, and the import advantages of imported coal are presented [59] - Upstream Supply: Data on the weekly production of 442 coal mines in the Three Western Regions, Ordos coal mine operating rates, and China's imported steam coal weekly shipments are provided [62] - Mid - Stream Transportation: Data on the supply - demand surplus, number of ships, and inventories at four Bohai Rim ports, as well as inland port inventories, are presented [64] - Downstream Manufacturing & Construction Industry Prosperity: Data on sub - industry PMIs, real estate sales areas, cement and coal - to - methanol operating rates, and steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rates are provided [66] - Downstream Daily Consumption & Inventory: Data on the daily consumption and inventory of eight coastal provinces, seventeen inland provinces, and twenty - five provinces across the country are presented [68][69] Container Shipping (European Route) Key Volume and Price Data - Price Trends: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price, and the basis will gradually converge [71] - Capacity Turnover: Data on the idle capacity, sailing speed of container ships, and the scale of container ships in ports in Northwest Europe and Asia are presented [76]