黑色金属日报-20250715

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★, with unclear implications from the symbol [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, bullish bias but limited trading opportunities [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, bullish bias but limited trading opportunities [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆, bullish bias but limited trading opportunities [1] - Silicon iron: ★☆☆, bullish bias but limited trading opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The current market is dominated by "anti - involution", and substantial measures are yet to be implemented. Market optimism has cooled, and there may be short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The short - term trends of iron ore, coke, and coking coal follow the trend of steel products. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand of iron ore is expected to be loose, and its room for continued rebound is limited [3][4][6] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron follow the trend of thread steel, with limited price increases and are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The thread steel market has a weak and stable apparent demand, a slight decline in production, and a continued slow decline in inventory. The hot - rolled coil demand and production have both declined, and inventory has continued to accumulate slightly. Iron - making water production has slowly declined but remains at a relatively high level. The domestic demand is weak, while exports are relatively high. Market optimism has cooled [2] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment has decreased slightly month - on - month, in line with seasonal patterns. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded to a high level but is lower than last year. Port inventories have continued to decline. Steel mills still have profits and have little motivation to actively reduce production. Iron - making water production is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to follow steel products and have limited room for rebound [3] Coke - The coking price increase is expected to be fully implemented this week, with a smaller increase than expected. Coking daily production has continued to decline from the annual high. Overall inventory has hardly changed, and traders' purchasing willingness has increased. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the impact of "anti - involution" is limited. The futures price is at a premium, and it is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [4] Coking Coal - The production of coking coal mines has continued to increase, and the spot auction market has improved. Terminal inventories have increased, and total coking coal inventories have decreased month - on - month. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the impact of "anti - involution" is limited. The futures price is at a premium, and it is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - Due to previous continuous production cuts, inventory levels have decreased, but weekly production has started to increase, and on - balance - sheet inventory has begun to rise. Manganese ore inventory has been increasing in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term inventory level is low, with an increased willingness of manganese mines to hold prices. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [7] Silicon Iron - Iron - making water production has slightly decreased but remains above 239. The tender inquiry price of a large northern steel mill in July is lower than that in June, and the tender quantity has increased. Export demand remains stable at around 30,000 tons, and the secondary demand is stable at a high level. Supply has continued to decline, and on - balance - sheet inventory has decreased, but production - end inventory has started to accumulate. It is expected to fluctuate [8]