Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral oscillation (adjusted from relatively strong) [2] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ (one star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No specific star rating provided [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, for observation) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ (suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, for observation) [1] Core Viewpoints - The increase in global oil inventories accelerated marginally in Q2, and the overall inventory decreased by 0.3% in the first week of Q3. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the rating of the crude oil market this week is adjusted to neutral oscillation [2]. - As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow the downward trend. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widens. The FU crack spread is expected to continue its downward trend, while the LU crack spread may turn into a sideways pattern [2]. - If the increase in the deduction ratio is mainly for secondary hydrogenation units, it will divert asphalt supply. The asphalt supply increase's resilience needs further observation, and the price increase is limited before demand improves substantially [3]. - The Middle East's production increase pressure persists, and the overseas LPG price continues to oscillate weakly. The domestic LPG market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures market oscillates weakly [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%, accelerating marginally from 2% in Q1. In the first week of Q3, the overall inventory decreased by 0.3%. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the rating is adjusted from relatively strong to neutral oscillation. The upside space for Brent crude above $70/barrel is limited [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow the downward trend, with a deeper decline in FU and a widening spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils. The supply of high - sulfur heavy resources is expected to increase, and the FU crack spread is expected to decline. The LU crack spread may turn into a sideways pattern [2]. Asphalt - If the increase in the deduction ratio is mainly for secondary hydrogenation units, it will divert asphalt supply. The cumulative year - on - year increase in the shipments of 54 sample refineries decreased by 1 percentage point to 7% compared to the end of June. The asphalt price is supported by low inventory, and the upward movement is limited before demand improves [3]. LPG - The Middle East's production increase pressure persists, and the overseas LPG price continues to oscillate weakly. The domestic LPG market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the top of the domestic gas price under pressure. The futures market oscillates weakly [4]
能源日报-20250715
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-15 11:20