棉花：全球产量有所上调，报告偏空

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bearish on the cotton industry [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The July report is bearish as global cotton production and ending stocks have been revised upwards, and the supply in the new season remains relatively loose, with international cotton prices expected to fluctuate at low levels [1][2] - The cotton in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries is still in the growing stage, and weather conditions should continue to be monitored [1][2] - Although there are some positive signals in China-US trade negotiations, the specific situation remains to be observed, and China-US relations have a significant impact on the demand for US cotton in the new season [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - Production: Global cotton production in the 25/26 season has been revised upwards by 311,000 tons month-on-month, with China's production up 218,000 tons to 6.75 million tons and still having room for further increase, and US production up 131,000 tons due to increased planting and harvest areas and favorable weather [1] - Consumption: Global cotton consumption in the 25/26 season has been revised upwards by 80,000 tons month-on-month, with China's consumption unchanged and Pakistan's up 65,000 tons. Overall consumption is stable, but trade conflicts are numerous, and China-US relations significantly affect US cotton demand [1] - Imports and Exports: Global cotton imports in the 25/26 season have decreased by 30,000 tons month-on-month, with Pakistan's imports up 131,000 tons and China's down 152,000 tons to 1.263 million tons. Global exports have decreased by 21,000 tons, with no adjustments to major exporters [1] - Ending Stocks: Global ending stocks in the 25/26 season have increased by 114,000 tons month-on-month, with the US up 66,000 tons, Pakistan up 43,000 tons, and both China and India up 11,000 tons [2] Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Production: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton production is 25.783 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 311,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 323,000 tons [3] - Consumption: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton consumption is 25.718 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 80,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 309,000 tons [3] - Imports: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton imports are 9.728 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 450,000 tons [3] - Exports: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton exports are 9.73 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 21,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 369,000 tons [3] - Ending Stocks: In 2025/26 (July), the total global ending stocks are 16.721 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 114,000 tons [3]