煤炭行业周报：高温来临、反内卷持续发酵，煤炭配置不悲观-20250715

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - High temperatures and ongoing "anti-involution" trends are expected to support coal prices, particularly for thermal coal, as demand continues to rise with increased electricity consumption [3][8] - The supply-demand relationship for coking coal is easing, with prices expected to rise due to recovering supply and ongoing demand from downstream industries [24][25] - The coal sector has underperformed compared to broader market indices, with significant fluctuations in stock performance across various coal companies [4][3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed an upward trend, but the coal sector lagged behind major indices, with the coal industry index declining by 1.08% [4][3] - Major coal companies experienced mixed performance, with some showing significant gains while others faced declines [4] Thermal Coal - Port inventories of thermal coal are decreasing, and high temperatures are driving up prices, with expectations for continued price increases due to limited supply [8][9] - Daily coal consumption at power plants has increased, with southern power plants consuming 2.139 million tons, a 13.1% increase week-on-week [8][9] - The average daily inventory at northern ports has decreased to over 27 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [16][17] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are rising, supported by recovering supply and strong demand from steel manufacturers, with production rates remaining high despite some operational challenges [24][25] - The average utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased to 86.0%, indicating a recovery in production [24][25] - The market is seeing a shift in import dynamics, with Russian coal gaining market share due to competitive pricing [25][26] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at ports has increased, and shipping prices have risen, indicating a robust demand for coal transportation [32][33] - The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to various ports has shown an upward trend, reflecting increased shipping activity [32][33] Industry News - The National Energy Group has received approval for the first national standard verification point for carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), marking a significant step in the industry [35] - National electricity loads have reached historical highs due to high temperatures and economic growth, indicating strong demand for coal-fired power generation [35][36]