2025年中央城市工作会议点评：迈入存量新阶段，城市更新筑内涵

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "better than the trend" for the next six months, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market benchmark [6]. Core Insights - The real estate market is transitioning into a stable and stock-based new phase, with urban development shifting from outward expansion to inward cultivation. The focus is now on enhancing the intrinsic quality of cities rather than merely expanding their boundaries [3][4]. - Urban renewal has become the core strategy for urban development, moving from large-scale demolition and construction to activating existing stock through renovation and utilization. The emphasis is on high-quality urban development and the establishment of a new model for real estate development [4]. - The supply of new residential land is expected to continue to decrease while improving quality. In the first half of 2025, residential land planned for release in 300 cities was 210 million square meters (down 19.4% year-on-year), with transactions at 170 million square meters (down 5.5% year-on-year). However, the land transfer revenue increased significantly to 860 billion yuan (up 27.5% year-on-year) [5]. Summary by Sections Urban Development - The central government emphasizes the need for modern, innovative, livable, beautiful, resilient, civilized, and smart cities. The urbanization process is shifting from rapid growth to stable development, indicating a new focus on internal quality enhancement [2][3]. Urban Renewal - The core task of urban renewal has evolved from focusing on shantytown and dilapidated housing renovations to addressing complex property rights in urban villages. This marks a significant shift in urban renewal strategies, with a clear directive to avoid large-scale demolitions [4]. Market Supply and Demand - The report highlights a trend of "reduced quantity and improved quality" in new housing supply, with a growing emphasis on product quality among real estate companies. The competitive edge is increasingly leaning towards developers who can deliver high-quality products [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality product developers, the second-hand housing market, and commercial real estate as key areas of investment in the current stock era [5].