南华原木产业风险管理日报：你们整，我先躺一会-20250715

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Song Jipeng (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0016598) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Log Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Log Price Range Forecast (Monthly): 740 - 820 [2] - Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling): 16.28% [2] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year): 67.4% [2] - Hedging Strategy for High Import Volume and High Inventory: Short log futures (lg2509) at 800 - 820 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - Hedging Strategy for Low Standing Inventory: Long log futures (lg2509) at 750 - 800 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Strategy - Current Situation: The position is awkward, the direction is unclear, and trading is challenging. The main driver of the current price decline is the disposal of delivery goods, and it's hard to judge how long it will take to digest them. There is a peak - season expectation and rising import costs in the future [3] - Strategy: Rest, observe, and wait [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors - Bullish Factor: Traders are willing to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses [4] Group 5: Bearish Factors - Bearish Factor 1: The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract suppresses the spot price [5] - Bearish Factor 2: The continuous increase in foreign shipments [5] Group 6: Spot and Basis - Spot Price and Basis Data: Presented for different specifications, ports, and dates, with the calculation formula for the basis (converted) provided [5][8][9] Group 7: Log Data Overview Supply - Radiation Pine Import Volume (May 31, 2025): 169 million m³, a month - on - month increase of 4 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [9] Inventory - Port Inventory (China, July 11, 2025): 322 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [9] - Port Inventory (Shandong, July 11, 2025): 1,894,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 7.4% [9] - Port Inventory (Jiangsu, July 11, 2025): 1,115,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 21,089 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 29.6% [9] - Log Port Daily Average Outbound Volume (July 11, 2025): 5.88 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 22.0% [9] Demand - Daily Average Outbound Volume (Shandong, July 11, 2025): 3.53 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million m³ and a year - on - year increase of 54.2% [9] - Daily Average Outbound Volume (Jiangsu, July 11, 2025): 1.85 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 million m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [9] Profit - Radiation Pine Import Profit (July 18, 2025): - 82 yuan/m³, no week - on - week change [9] - Spruce Import Profit (July 18, 2025): - 42 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/m³ [9] Main Spot - Spot Prices for Different Specifications and Ports on July 15, 2025 are provided, along with their week - on - week and year - on - year changes [9]