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6月经济数据点评:生产依然强于需求
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-15 13:40

Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, China's GDP growth rate reached 5.2%, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1, but still above the 5% target, supported by proactive fiscal policies and a temporary pause in US tariffs, which encouraged exports [3][4]. - Despite the growth, domestic demand remains weak, with inflation levels low and the GDP deflator index negative for nine consecutive quarters, indicating downward pressure on the economy [3][4]. Consumption Trends - Consumer spending showed signs of weakening in June 2025, with retail sales growth remaining at 5.0% for the first half of the year, and restaurant sales growth at 4.3%, both reflecting a slowdown compared to earlier months [3][23]. - The increase in consumption has been largely driven by policy subsidies rather than a sustainable rise in household income, as new short-term loans for residents have not been strong [3][23]. Industrial Production - In June 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value increased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.4%, indicating that production continues to outpace demand [3][6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive at 0.1% year-on-year, supported by fresh vegetable and energy prices, although the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an expanded decline, reflecting ongoing supply-demand imbalances [3][8]. Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth declined to 2.8% year-on-year in June 2025, with real estate investment down by 11.2%, infrastructure investment at 8.9%, and manufacturing investment at 7.5%, all indicating a weakening trend [3][10]. - The core issue in the domestic economy remains the contraction in demand and weakening expectations, with the bond market expected to remain in a favorable position despite recent adjustments [3][10]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the economic landscape in July 2025 may not see significant tightening of funds, with the central bank's supportive stance indicated by a recent 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repo operation [3][10]. - Potential catalysts for a breakthrough in 10-year government bonds include new rounds of interest rate cuts and the resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank [3][10].