南华原油市场日报：美对俄制裁不及预期，原油冲高回落-20250715

Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the under - performance of Trump's policies on Ukraine and Russia, market concerns about supply tightening and the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine situation have significantly eased, causing international oil prices to decline. The current demand is strong, with high refinery operating rates in the US and China, and China's high import demand, which supports the Dubai price. However, future demand growth is limited and will face seasonal decline. Even if OPEC + may suspend production increases in October, the US demand will reach an inflection point in September, and the "long - tail effect" of previous production increases will gradually weaken the oil fundamentals. The oil market is short - term bullish but has limited upside potential, and the pressure will increase over time [2]. Market Dynamics Macro - Trump stated that if Russia fails to reach a conflict agreement within 50 days, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed, and the US will also impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. This statement led to a drop in oil futures to a daily low [3]. - Brazil's vice - president denied the news of tariff reduction and extension requests, and Brazil will announce counter - measures. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods [4]. Fundamentals - In June, China's industrial crude oil production was 18.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%, and the processing volume was 62.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The strong performance in June was due to the good profit margins of state - owned refineries. China's Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%, contributing to a 5.3% growth in the first half of the year [5][6]. - An explosion occurred at the Sarsang oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan, suspending production. The average production of the block is about 36,000 barrels per day [6]. - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in June decreased by 3.4% month - on - month. It is expected that exports from July to August will increase significantly [7]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes | Indicator | 2025 - 07 - 14 | 2025 - 07 - 11 | 2025 - 07 - 07 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M + 2 | 69.21 | 70.36 | 69.58 | - 1.15 | - 0.37 | | WTI Crude M + 2 | 65.81 | 67.04 | 66.49 | - 1.23 | - 0.68 | | SC Crude M + 2 | 507.5 | 511.9 | 505 | - 4.4 | 2.5 | | Dubai Crude M + 2 | 67.59 | 68.36 | 67.72 | - 0.77 | - 0.13 | | Oman Crude M + 2 | 70.76 | 71.65 | 71.26 | - 0.89 | - 0.5 | | Murban Crude M + 2 | 70.74 | 71.55 | 71.11 | - 0.81 | - 0.37 | | EFS Spread M + 2 | 1.62 | 2 | 1.86 | - 0.38 | - 0.24 | | Brent Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M + 3) | 0.98 | 1.2 | 1.12 | - 0.22 | - 0.14 | | Oman Monthly Spread (M + 2 - M - 3) | 2.07 | 1.73 | 1.97 | 0.34 | 0.1 | | Dubai Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 1.1 | 1.05 | 0.95 | 0.05 | 0.15 | | SC Monthly Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 11.1 | 10 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 5.5 | | SC - Dubai (M + 2) | 2.234 | 1.6531 | 2.7249 | 0.5809 | - 0.4909 | | SC - Oman (M + 2) | - 1.416 | - 1.3569 | - 0.5451 | - 0.0591 | - 0.8709 | [9]