甲醇产业风险管理日报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall fundamentals of methanol have weakened recently. Although it tested the bottom around 2350, most varieties rebounded due to anti - involution, and market expectations for policies were high. However, the coal - chemical sector, including methanol, struggled to keep up. The short - term outlook for methanol is weak, and attention should be paid to whether port提货 improves [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 51.2%. For polypropylene, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 10.56% and a percentile of 42.2%. For plastic, the price range is 6800 - 7400, with a volatility of 15.24% and a percentile of 78.5% [3]. Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short methanol futures (MA2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 2250 - 2350. They can also buy put options (MA2509P2250) with a 50% ratio and sell call options (MA2509C2350) with a 45 - 60% ratio to prevent large price drops and reduce capital costs [3]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to prevent price increases, they can buy methanol futures (MA2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2200 - 2350. They can also sell put options (MA2509P2300) with a 75% ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. Core Contradictions - Methanol tested the bottom around 2350, but the coal - chemical sector couldn't keep up with the market rebound. The fundamentals weakened due to normal recovery in Iran (150,000 shipments as of the weekend), rumors of mto - end Xingxing's ship rerouting and potential shutdown, and poor port提货 after the geopolitical conflict, along with increased arrivals at port public tank farms in July leading to inventory accumulation and potential inventory expansion [4]. Negative Factors - This week, the expected arrival of foreign vessels at ports is scattered, and the arrival volume is sufficient, so port methanol inventory is expected to increase [5].