Guoxin Securities·2025-07-15 13:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 12% and an adjusted net profit growth of 13% in Q2 2025. The network advertising revenue is projected to grow by 18%, while the gaming business, particularly evergreen games, is performing well [4][7][16] - The financial technology and enterprise services segment is expected to see a slight acceleration in revenue growth, projected at 8% year-on-year [5][17] - The company is well-positioned for long-term growth, particularly in areas like WeChat e-commerce and AI-driven services, which are not fully reflected in current profit forecasts [6][23] Summary by Sections Financial Performance Expectations - For Q2 2025, Tencent's total revenue is expected to reach 1801 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase. The adjusted net profit is anticipated to be 645 billion, also a 13% increase [7][10] - The gaming segment is projected to generate 560 billion in revenue, a 15% increase year-on-year, with domestic game revenue expected to grow by 16% [4][13] - The advertising revenue is forecasted to be 352 billion, marking an 18% increase year-on-year, driven by AI enhancements and inventory release [4][16] Business Segment Insights - The gaming business is showing strong performance, with established games maintaining growth and new titles like "Delta Force" achieving success in overseas markets [4][13] - The financial technology and enterprise services segment is expected to generate 545 billion in revenue, with a focus on payment services linked to offline consumption [5][17] Long-term Growth Potential - The report highlights Tencent's natural advantages in user engagement and scenarios, positioning it as a leading player in the AI era. The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2585 billion, 2896 billion, and 3218 billion respectively, with a 2% upward revision for each year [6][23]