关税落地，铜价回落

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff 2.0 on copper and copper products has a negative impact on the macro - sentiment. The tariff of 50% on copper and copper products starting from August 1st is beyond market expectations, causing a divergence in the trends of US and London copper, with the price difference widening to $2000 - 3000. The tariff will lead to a decrease in copper flowing from non - US regions to the US, alleviating the supply pressure in non - US regions and having a negative impact on London and Shanghai copper prices. Short - term copper prices will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner. The recommended strategies are to short on rallies and sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Weekly Review 3.1.1 Weekly Data - Supply - side: The spot TC of copper concentrate was $44.25/ton, up $0.46 or 1.04% week - on - week. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1848 yuan/ton, down 1011 yuan or 54.72%. The southern crude copper processing fee remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton. The operating rate of refined copper rods was 64%, down 3 percentage points or 5.11%. The operating rate of recycled copper rods was 25%, up 0.7 percentage points or 2.66%. The operating rate of wire and cable was 68%, down 4 percentage points or 5.47% [7]. - Inventory: The available days of copper concentrate port inventory were 5.6 days, down 0.2 days or 3.09%. The social inventory of electrolytic copper was 14.29 million tons, up 0.47 million tons or 3.29%. The bonded area inventory was 7.29 million tons, up 0.59 million tons or 8.09%. The total global inventory was 50.04 million tons, up 4.05 million tons or 8.09% [7]. - Valuation: The spot smelting comprehensive profit was - 3850 yuan/ton, up 561 yuan or 14.58%. The long - term smelting comprehensive profit was - 317 yuan/ton, up 541 yuan or 170.69%. The import profit was - 970 yuan/ton, up 659 yuan or 67.93% [7]. 3.1.2 Comprehensive Logic - Affected by the copper tariff expectation, about 400,000 tons of copper (about half a year's import volume in the US) has been imported into the US in advance. After the tariff is implemented in early August, the flow of copper from non - US regions to the US will stop, and the supply pressure in non - US regions will be alleviated. The tariff policy has a negative impact on London and Shanghai copper prices. Short - term copper prices will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3.1.3 Fed Rate - cut Path - The report provides the expected interest rate changes and implied overnight interest rates of different regions and time points in the US through the federal funds futures and OIS models, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's rate - cut path [11]. Part 2: Copper Industry Chain 3.2.1 Price/Spread/Cost/Profit - Price: The report presents the historical data of SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, Shanghai copper term structure, Shanghai copper main contract closing price, and LME3 closing price [13][16][21][23]. - Spread: It shows the historical data of the Shanghai - London ratio, Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange rate), and LME(0 - 3) premium/discount [23]. - Cost/Profit: The report provides the historical data of spot copper import profit, electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (including by - product sulfuric acid), feed - processing spot export profit, and electrolytic copper comprehensive profit for long - term contracts [25][27][29][31]. 3.2.2 Copper Supply/Demand - Supply: It includes the production of copper concentrate in Chile and Peru, the import volume of copper concentrate, scrap copper, and crude copper, and the production and import volume of electrolytic copper [33][37][40]. - Demand: - Copper Rod - Cable: The operating rates of refined copper rods, wire and cable, and enameled wire, as well as the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper rod lines are presented [44][45]. - Cable Terminal - Power Grid: The cumulative and monthly power grid investment completion amounts are provided [46][47]. - Copper Tube - Air Conditioner: The operating rate of copper tubes, the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper tubes, and the production, domestic sales, and export volumes of household air conditioners are shown [54][55]. - Copper Plate - Strip: The operating rate of copper plate - strips, and the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper plate - strips are presented [58][59]. - Terminal - Automobile: The monthly production and sales volumes of automobiles and new - energy vehicles are provided [61][62][64]. - Brass Rod - Real Estate: The operating rate of brass rods, the monthly and cumulative housing completion areas, and the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large cities are shown [67][68][70][72]. 3.2.3 Copper Inventory - Domestic: The report provides the historical data of domestic copper inventories, including social inventory, bonded area inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory, and SMM copper concentrate port inventory [73][74]. - Overseas: It shows the historical data of overseas copper inventories, including LME electrolytic copper inventory, COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, and global refined copper inventory [76][77]. Part 3: Capital Position 3.3.1 Copper External Market Position - On July 8th, the non - commercial long - position ratio of CFTC was 35.1%, slightly lower and basically flat, and the net long - position increased to 39,600 lots. On July 11th, the net long - position of LME investment funds was 32,182 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6990 lots [83].