白糖日报-20250715

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, with Brazil approaching its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. The selling pressure after the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season has dragged down the raw sugar price center, and the expected increase in production in Brazil and the Northern Hemisphere is suppressing raw sugar prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual production increase [6]. - Domestically, the fast production - sales speed is expected to support sugar prices, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar into the domestic market may limit the upward space of sugar prices. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. - Raw sugar is weak due to the expected global supply - demand relaxation, and is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the short term. In China, the fast production - sales rhythm supports spot prices, but due to the weak raw sugar and high import profits, the pressure of processed sugar supply will be realized, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Disk: For SR2509, the closing price is 5,802, down 15 (-0.26%); the trading volume is 143,216, down 18.77%; the open interest is 317,114, down 3.20%. For SR2601, the closing price is 5,635, down 4 (-0.07%); the trading volume is 19,895, down 17.88%; the open interest is 114,390, up 0.73%. For SR2511, the closing price is 5,694, up 7 (0.12%); the trading volume is 20,230, down 13.80%; the open interest is 51,934, down 3.19% [5]. - Spot Price: In different regions, today's sugar prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an are 6130, 5905, 6060, 6150, 6135, and 6420 respectively. The price in Liuzhou decreased by 10, while others remained unchanged. The corresponding basis is 436, 211, 366, 456, 441, and 726 [5]. - Monthly Spread: The spread of SR11 - SR01 is 59, up 11; the spread of SR09 - SR11 is 108, up 238; the spread of SR09 - SR01 is 167, down 11 [5]. - Import Profit: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price is 4325, the out - of - quota price is 5525, with a spread of 605 compared to Liuzhou, 610 compared to Rizhao, and 110 compared to the futures market. For Thai imports, the in - quota price is 4407, the out - of - quota price is 5633, with a spread of 497 compared to Liuzhou, 502 compared to Rizhao, and 2 compared to the futures market [5]. 3.2 Market Judgment - International: Brazil's approaching supply peak will lead to global inventory accumulation. The new crushing season in Brazil and the expected increase in production in both Brazil and the Northern Hemisphere will suppress raw sugar prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production progress and actual production increase [6]. - Domestic: The fast production - sales speed supports sugar prices, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar may limit the upward space of sugar prices. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a volatile trend [6]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - Raw sugar is in a weak state due to the expected global supply - demand relaxation, but may be supported by buying at the bottom, so it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the short term. In China, the fast production - sales rhythm supports spot prices, but due to the weak raw sugar and high import profits, the pressure of processed sugar supply will be realized, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively [7]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Single - side: Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a short - term oscillation [8]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [9]. - Options: Use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [12].