策略点评：情绪指标信号再度“触发”

Group 1 - The BOCIASI A-share sentiment indicator has issued a cautious signal after three months, indicating a need for attention [2][3][4] - The report discusses two main questions: understanding the recent market rally and actions to take following the cautious signal [4] - The A-share index has touched the upper bound of its range three times since October 2024, with the BOCIASI indicator accurately signaling caution each time [4][6] Group 2 - The recent market rally can be divided into three phases, driven by external environment improvements and policy expectations [4][7] - The first phase benefited from the easing of geopolitical tensions, while the second phase was supported by a significant rise in financial stocks, particularly banks [7] - The third phase saw a rotation in midstream industries, supported by the "anti-involution" policy announced after the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 [7][8] Group 3 - Following the cautious signal, the sentiment indicator's slow line reading was at 44.6%, just above the cautious threshold of 44.4%, while the fast line reading was at 61.2%, below the cautious threshold of 70.0% [8] - The current market state is expected to enter a "high-level oscillation" or "slight adjustment" phase, with a medium-term strategy of "two advances and one retreat" [8][9] - Four strategies are suggested for current market conditions, including focusing on defensive sectors and optimizing portfolios [8][9][10]