6月进出口数据点评：关税影响中国出口价格了吗？

Export Performance - In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 5% and the previous month's 4.8%[1] - The import growth rate was 1.1% year-on-year in June, slightly below the expected 1.3% and a recovery from -3.4% in May[1] Tariff Impact on Export Prices - There is no substantial evidence that tariffs have led to a significant decline in China's export prices, with the export price index showing a marginal recovery since early 2024, although it remains in negative territory at -2.5% in May 2025[3] - The divergence between export-oriented PPI and non-export-oriented PPI has reached 3.6% in June, the highest since January 2007, indicating a potential for export price recovery[6] Future Export Outlook - For July, high-frequency indicators suggest that export growth may remain resilient but could slow marginally, particularly due to a potential increase in drag from the U.S.[8] - The ongoing uncertainty regarding tariff policies, with a deadline of August 12, may lead to increased export risks in the latter half of the year[9] Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to the U.S. continue to show low growth, contributing a negative 2.4 percentage points to June's overall export growth, while exports to ASEAN countries remain robust, contributing 2.8 percentage points[39] - The overall export growth in June was supported by strong performances in regions like ASEAN, Hong Kong, Africa, and the EU, which collectively added 7 percentage points to the growth[39]