国证国际港股晨报-20250715

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience with a three-day upward trend, closing at 24,203 points, up 63 points or 0.3% [2] - The main board turnover was HKD 210.4 billion, a decrease of 35.1% from the previous day's high of HKD 324 billion [2] - Northbound trading maintained a net inflow status, with a significant increase of 372.7% in net inflow to HKD 8.243 billion [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The social financing data released by the People's Bank of China for the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with a total increase of CNY 22.8 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 26.2% [4] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 12.9 trillion, indicating reasonable growth in financial volume and a continuous decline in financing costs [4] - Despite strong overall data, some monthly credit data showed weakness, reflecting uncertainty in corporate expectations [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Tmall (6110.HK) - Tmall reported a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year to HKD 27.01 billion, primarily due to weak offline consumption and reduced foot traffic [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 41.9% to HKD 1.29 billion, with the decline in profit outpacing revenue due to high fixed costs [6] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 135%, distributing a final dividend of HKD 0.02 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Tmall is optimizing its store structure, reducing the number of direct-operated stores by 18.3% to 5,020, while focusing on improving operational efficiency [7] - The company is expanding its brand partnerships, including collaborations with high-end running brands, to diversify its brand matrix [7] - Future performance is expected to improve as retail consumption conditions recover, with projected EPS for FY26/27/28 at HKD 0.21/0.22/0.23, and a target price of HKD 3.6 based on a 16x PE for FY26 [7]