预期现实博弈，钢矿高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar dropped from a high level, with a daily decline of 0.54%. The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness, but the low inventory limits industrial contradictions. With strong raw materials providing cost support and positive policy expectations, the steel price will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, focusing on policy implementation [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil remained at a high level, with a daily decline of 0.31%. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coil have both weakened, with a slight inventory build-up. However, positive policy expectations and strong raw materials lead to a high-level oscillating trend, and overseas tariff risks should be guarded against [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level, with a daily increase of 0.13%. Optimistic sentiment persists, supporting the high price of iron ore. However, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is weakening. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating consolidation, paying attention to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 311.72 billion yuan, 2.3905 trillion yuan, and 3.90314 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, China's fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.48654 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Private fixed asset investment decreased by 0.6% year-on-year. After deducting price factors, the growth rate was 5.3%. The investment in the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 48.16 billion yuan, 882.94 billion yuan, and 1.55543 trillion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 6.5%, 10.2%, and -1.1% [7]. - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.2%; pig iron output was 71.91 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%; steel output was 127.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. From January to June, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%; pig iron output was 434.68 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; steel output was 734.38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,170 yuan, 3,180 yuan, and 3,287 yuan respectively, with changes of -10 yuan, -10 yuan, and -4 yuan. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280 yuan, 3,200 yuan, and 3,308 yuan respectively, with changes of -20 yuan, 0 yuan, and 1 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 750 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 707 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,114 yuan, a decrease of 0.54%. The trading volume was 1,439,493, an increase of 274,884, and the open interest was 2,153,852, an increase of 31,511 [11]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,259 yuan, a decrease of 0.31%. The trading volume was 496,158, an increase of 41,499, and the open interest was 1,566,776, a decrease of 13,515 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 767.0 yuan, an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 325,980, an increase of 86,736, and the open interest was 668,688, an increase of 3,867 [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot-rolled coil inventory, and iron ore inventory at 45 ports, as well as charts on steel mill production, such as blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability [13][18][27]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production has decreased, but the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Demand remains weak, and the steel price is still under pressure in the off-season. However, low inventory, strong raw materials, and positive policy expectations will lead to an oscillating and stabilizing trend, focusing on policy implementation [36]. - Hot-rolled coil: Supply and demand have both weakened. Production has declined, but the supply pressure remains high. Demand resilience has weakened, but downstream cold-rolled production provides support. With positive policy expectations and strong raw materials, it will maintain a high-level oscillating trend, guarding against overseas tariff risks [37]. - Iron ore: Supply and demand have both weakened. Ore demand is declining, and the supply is also contracting. Optimistic sentiment supports the high price, but the upward driving force is weakening. It is expected to maintain a high-level oscillating consolidation, paying attention to the performance of finished products [38].