有色日报：有色弱势运行-20250715

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: The main copper futures price fluctuated around 78,000 yuan today. After hitting a low of 77,600 yuan in the morning, it rebounded. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. After the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the spot market became looser. The narrowing scrap - refined copper price spread will support the futures price. The profit from LME imports indicates a stronger domestic copper price. Against the backdrop of a warming domestic macro - environment, the copper price may stabilize with fluctuations. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 78,000 yuan level [5]. - Aluminum: The main aluminum futures price fluctuated around 20,400 yuan today, with a continuous decline in open interest. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. At the industrial level, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, the spot market became looser, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. On Monday, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 483,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Thursday. Recently, overseas electrolytic aluminum inventories have also started to rise. The main futures price retreated after hitting a previous high, and the off - season in the industry dragged down the futures price. Against the backdrop of a warming domestic macro - environment, the aluminum price may stabilize with fluctuations. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - Nickel: The nickel price fluctuated lower today, with an increase in open interest. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. At the industrial level, the port inventory of upstream nickel ore continued to rise, the supply of the ore end became looser, and the support for the nickel price weakened. The downstream stainless steel followed the decline of the black metal sector. Technically, pay attention to the support at the previous low of 119,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: On July 14, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 142,000 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from July 7 and a decrease of 6,100 tons from July 10 [9]. - Aluminum: In June, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 695,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 4.032 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in June was 381,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to June, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 2.238 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.3%. On July 14, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 483,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from July 10 and an increase of 18,000 tons from July 7 [10]. - Nickel: On July 15, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Shanghai Nickel 2508 contract, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,420 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,970 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,170 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 118,520 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts of copper basis, calendar spread, domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][14]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, calendar spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][30][26]. - Nickel: The report includes charts of nickel basis, calendar spread, SHFE inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][42][44].