Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. Core Views - The international soybean market is generally characterized by a relatively loose supply - demand balance. The US soybean market may still face pressure, while the situation of Brazil and Argentina also has an impact on the market. The domestic soybean market may face inventory accumulation pressure. [4][6] - The raw sugar market is weak due to global supply - demand expectations but may be supported by buying at the bottom, maintaining short - term oscillations. The domestic sugar market is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. [12] - The palm oil market is in a stage of production and inventory accumulation, and the domestic soybean oil market is in a phased inventory accumulation. The rapeseed oil market has a bottom - support on the futures market. Overall, the short - term upward momentum of the oil market is weak. [20] - The US corn market may rebound, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downward space. The spot price may be weak in the short term, and the futures price will fluctuate at the bottom. [27] - The pig market is oscillating, with supply pressure improving, but the high inventory may limit price increases. [32] - The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong and oscillating, but may decline in the medium - long term due to the expected increase in planting area. [36] - The egg price is expected to seasonally strengthen, and the September contract may rise after reaching the bottom. [45] - The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the short term, with a likely oscillating trend. [49] - The US cotton market may be slightly weak in the short term but has potential positive factors. The Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [56] Summary by Categories Soybean/M粕类 - 外盘情况: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.12% to 1012.25 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.21% to $279 per short ton. [2] - 相关资讯: As of July 10, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 147,045 tons. As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%. The US soybean meal export sales reached 2 million tons as of July 3. As of July 11, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2954 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.52%. [2][3] - 逻辑分析: The international soybean market has a loose supply - demand balance. The domestic market may face inventory accumulation pressure. [4][6] - 策略建议: For unilateral trading, buy in small quantities at low points; for arbitrage, conduct M91 long spreads; for options, wait and see. [7] Sugar - 外盘情况: The ICE US sugar futures dropped 1.57% to 16.31 cents per pound. [8] - 重要资讯: The spot price of Guangxi sugar rose, and the demand in the peak season led to inventory reduction. The US 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.195 million short tons. In the 2024/2025 season, Yunnan's sugar production increased significantly. [9][10][11] - 逻辑分析: The raw sugar market is weak but may oscillate. The domestic sugar market is expected to follow the raw sugar price passively. [12] - 持仓建议: For unilateral trading, the Zhengzhou sugar futures will oscillate in the short term; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options. [13][14] Oil - 外盘情况: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil futures changed by 0.02% to 53.95 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil futures changed by - 0.09% to 4,228 ringgit per ton. [16] - 相关资讯: In June, India's palm oil imports increased by 60%, and the total vegetable oil imports increased by 30.6%. As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%. As of July 11, the domestic palm oil and soybean oil inventories increased. [17][18][19] - 逻辑分析: The palm oil market is in production and inventory accumulation. The domestic soybean oil market is in phased inventory accumulation, and the rapeseed oil market has a bottom - support. [20] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, the short - term upward momentum of the oil market is weak, and it may oscillate; for arbitrage and options, wait and see. [21][22][23] Corn/Corn Starch - 外盘变化: The CBOT corn futures rose, with the December contract up 2.2% to 419.0 cents per bushel. [25] - 重要资讯: The CBOT corn futures rose due to bargain - hunting and short - covering. The US corn production is expected to be strong. Brazil's corn shipments decreased. The good - excellent rate of US corn was 74%. The North Port's corn purchase price was stable. [26] - 逻辑分析: The US corn market may rebound, and the domestic corn market is expected to have limited downward space. The spot price may be weak in the short term, and the futures price will fluctuate at the bottom. [27] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, the December US corn futures will oscillate at the bottom, and the September contract should be observed; for arbitrage, close the long - corn and short - September - corn positions gradually; for options, those with spot can consider the high - selling strategy carefully. [28][29][30] Pig - 相关资讯: The pig price oscillated. The prices of piglets and sows were stable. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.6%. [32] - 逻辑分析: The pig market is oscillating, with supply pressure improving, but the high inventory may limit price increases. [32] - 策略建议: For unilateral trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, conduct LH91 long spreads; for options, wait and see. [33] Peanut - 重要资讯: The prices of peanuts in different regions were stable. The arrival volume of an oil factory was 200 tons. The peanut oil price was stable, and the peanut meal sales were slow. As of July 10, the peanut inventory of sample enterprises decreased. [35] - 逻辑分析: The peanut market is expected to be short - term strong and oscillating, but may decline in the medium - long term due to the expected increase in planting area. [36] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, short the October contract at high prices and wait and see currently; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option. [37][39][40] Egg - 重要资讯: The egg price in the main production and sales areas rose. The inventory of laying hens increased in June. The egg sales volume decreased. The production and circulation inventories decreased. The egg - farming profit decreased. [42][43][44] - 交易逻辑: The egg price is expected to seasonally strengthen, and the September contract may rise after reaching the bottom. [45] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, consider building long positions in the September contract when the plum - rain season is about to end; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [45] Apple - 重要资讯: As of July 2, the apple cold - storage inventory was 993,100 tons. In May 2025, the apple import volume decreased, and the export volume decreased. The apple price in the origin was stable, and the sales were slow. [47] - 交易逻辑: The apple market has low inventory and weak demand in the short term, with a likely oscillating trend. [49] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, the AP10 contract is expected to oscillate, and consider buying low and selling high; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [50][54] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - 外盘影响: The ICE US cotton futures rose 1.02% to 68.11 cents per pound. [52] - 重要资讯: As of July 13, the good - excellent rate of US cotton was 54%. As of July 3, the un - priced contracts of ICE cotton increased. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports decreased slightly. [53][54][55] - 交易逻辑: The US cotton market may be slightly weak in the short term but has potential positive factors. The Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [56] - 交易策略: For unilateral trading, the US cotton is expected to oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton will oscillate in the short term with limited upward space; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell put options. [57][59]
银河期货每日早盘观察-20250715
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-15 14:37