Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various metals and minerals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors, including market reviews, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each product. It takes into account factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and policy changes to evaluate the market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [3][7][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Review: London gold closed down 0.36% at $3342.78/ounce, London silver down 0.72% at $38.11/ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index was almost flat at 98.035, 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.426%, and the RMB/USD exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.1723 [3]. - Important News: Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine - Russia conflict agreement is reached in 50 days. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Fed officials' remarks and interest rate probability expectations were also reported [3]. - Logical Analysis: As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, tariff games intensify. The Fed is in a wait - and - see mode. The market awaits US CPI data. Silver's spot supply is tight due to tax - increase expectations [3]. - Trading Strategy: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [5]. Copper - Market Review: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.34% to 78020 yuan/ton, LME copper closed down 0.2% at $9643.5/ton. LME and Comex inventories increased [7]. - Important News: Multiple tariff - related events were reported. China's June copper imports showed mixed trends. SMM national copper inventory increased [8][9]. - Logical Analysis: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st. The US' siphoning of global refined copper is nearing an end. LME inventory bottomed out. The price difference structure will converge, and the market is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina - Market Review: Night - session alumina 2509 contract rose 37 yuan to 3145 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [12]. - Important News: Central Finance Commission meeting emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, and production and inventory data [12][14]. - Logical Analysis: Alumina production is increasing, but spot circulation is limited. The supply - demand pattern will gradually shift to a surplus, but warehouse receipt demand may support the market [15]. - Trading Strategy: Expect alumina prices to fluctuate strongly for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell 30 yuan/ton to 20405 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [18][21]. - Important News: Aluminum ingot inventory increased. There were data on photovoltaic installation, aluminum exports, and financial and trade news [21][22]. - Trading Logic: Tariff negotiations are ongoing. Aluminum ingot inventory may have a narrow - range change. The decline in photovoltaic component production may be mitigated [23]. - Trading Strategy: Aluminum prices may be under pressure in the short - term but not overly pessimistic for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: Night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 19800 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [28]. - Important News: There were data on production, cost, profit, and inventory of cast aluminum alloy [28][29]. - Trading Logic: Alloy ingot enterprises face raw material shortages, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [30]. - Trading Strategy: Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow aluminum prices under pressure. Consider arbitrage within a certain price difference range; wait and see for options [30]. Zinc - Market Review: LME zinc fell 0.2% to $2732.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2508 fell 0.27% to 22145 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [32]. - Important News: Domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [32]. - Logical Analysis: Zinc supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices may be under pressure [33]. - Trading Strategy: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Lead - Market Review: LME lead fell 0.98% to $2017/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.2% to 17070 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [36]. - Important News: Lead inventory increased, and the average operating rate of primary lead smelters decreased [36]. - Logical Analysis: Recycled lead is in a loss, and the supply is hard to increase. Demand is improving marginally [37]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level. High - selling and low - buying in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38]. Nickel - Market Review: LME nickel fell 170 to $15065/ton, inventory increased. Shanghai nickel fell 1310 to 119460 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [42]. - Important News: A Canadian nickel company's exploration results and battery production data were reported [42]. - Logical Analysis: The market is worried about US tariffs. Refined nickel has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - Trading Strategy: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main SS2508 contract rose 10 to 12695 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [44]. - Important News: A stainless steel factory's high - nickel pig iron transaction and a company's production achievement were reported [48]. - Logical Analysis: Stainless steel demand is not optimistic, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [48]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. Industrial Silicon - Market Review: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose [50]. - Important News: The US launched 232 investigations on drones and polysilicon [50]. - Comprehensive Analysis: Industrial silicon production will decrease in July. Supply and demand may be balanced. Inventory has shifted, and the market is optimistic [50][52]. - Strategy: Short - term strength for single - side trading; stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy [53]. Polysilicon - Market Review: Polysilicon futures rose 0.81% to 41765 yuan/ton. Spot prices declined [55]. - Important News: Silicon wafer and battery prices and US investigations were reported [55]. - Comprehensive Analysis: Polysilicon price increases can be passed on to downstream. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Reduce long positions [56][58]. - Strategy: Reduce long positions and participate in short - term trading. Stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy; wait and see for options [59]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main 2509 contract rose 2380 to 66480 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - Important News: A company obtained a mining license, and a cooperation agreement was signed [61][63]. - Logical Analysis: Market concerns led to price increases. Demand is not weak in the off - season. Prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and decline in the long - term [63]. - Trading Strategy: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities; wait and see for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [64].
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250715
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-15 14:34