银河期货农产品日报-20250715

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Apple Daily Report, July 15, 2024 [2] - Report type: Agricultural product research report - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - The index of Gongqian Suye is 110.95, up 0.89 from the previous trading day. The price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 is 4.80, unchanged. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 is 3.95, down 0.15. The price of Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 is 4.05, down 0.15. The price of Yiyuan paper - bag 70 is 2.40, unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.27, down 0.06 [3] Futures Prices - AP01 is 7713, up 24 from the previous close; AP05 is 7742, down 6; AP10 is 7862, up 24. AP01 - AP05 is - 29, up 30; AP05 - AP10 is - 120, down 30; AP10 - AP01 is 149, unchanged [3] Basis - The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against AP01 is 187, down 324; against AP05 is 158, down 294; against AP10 is 38, down 324 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of July 9, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China is 91.49 million tons, a decrease of 7.81 million tons from last week. The shipping speed is similar to last week and still slower than the same period last year [4] - In May 2025, the import volume of fresh apples is 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.04% and a year - on - year increase of 16.77%. The cumulative import volume from January to May 2025 is 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.78%. The export volume in May 2025 is about 4.55 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.15% [7] - Today, the mainstream transaction price of apples in the producing areas remains stable. The number of buyers has slightly increased in the past two days, and the purchasing enthusiasm has slightly improved. Buyers are mainly looking for striped red apples, but the satisfactory supply is scarce. The storage merchants' willingness to sell is good. In the Shaanxi production area, early - maturing apples of different varieties are gradually on the market, and the purchase price of the current listed supply is mostly higher than the same period last year [7] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants is 0.7 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [7] - The mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Shandong is stable. The price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmers' striped red apples is 3.3 - 3.8 yuan per catty, and the striped ones are 3.3 - 4.2 yuan per catty. The price of merchants' striped red apples is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and the striped ones are 3.8 - 4.8 yuan per catty. The price of general goods is 2.8 - 3.0 yuan per catty, and the third - grade merchants' goods are 2.5 - 3.0 yuan per catty. The mainstream transaction price of 70 apples is 2.5 - 2.7 yuan per catty, priced according to quality. The number of buyers has slightly increased, and the transaction is stable [8] Trading Logic - On the spot side, the current market inventory is low, the market demand is in the off - season, and the spot sales are average. The output of the new - season apples is expected to change little compared with this season. Before the new - season apples are on the market, the supply is low and the demand is weak, and the market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a long - biased strategy when the price is low - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see - Options: Sell put options [10] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, the price difference between different AP contracts, the total apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple delivery volume [14][23][29]