银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20250715

Group 1: Market Review - London gold is currently trading around $3360, and London silver around $38.25. Shanghai gold futures rose 0.25% to 780.4 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 0.52% to 9225 yuan/kg [3] - The US dollar index opened higher and then weakened, currently trading around 97.97 [4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated slightly, currently around 4.415% [5] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar oscillated at a high level, currently around 7.173 [6] Group 2: Important Information - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia, and the EU is preparing to impose counter - tariff on $72 billion of US goods [7] - Fed's Harker said there is no urgent need to cut interest rates, and Powell asked the Fed inspector general to review the renovation cost of the Fed building [7] - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 94.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5.2%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60.0% [7] Group 3: Logical Analysis - As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, the tariff game has tightened. Due to tariff uncertainty, the Fed is taking a wait - and - see approach. The market is waiting for the US CPI data tonight. Silver is in short supply due to tax - increase expectations, and precious metals are expected to continue a strong trend [8][10] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, consider holding long positions based on the 5 - day moving average [11] - For arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [12][13] Group 5: Data Reference - There are multiple data charts including actual yield and precious metal trends, US dollar index and precious metal trends, internal and external futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, gold - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures positions, futures inventories, trading volumes, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [14][16][21]