苹果周报：需求表现一般，果价稳中有落-20250715

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the late Fuji apple market this week was stable but weak, with light trading. The demand in the market is in the off - season, and the spot sales are average. The supply - demand contradiction in the market is not significant before the new - season apples are launched, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [5][13][14] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Apple Spot Analysis - The late Fuji market in the main producing areas is weak and trading is light. In Shandong, good - quality apples have stable prices, while the prices of general and lower - quality apples decline. In Shaanxi, the proportion of water - rotted apples increases and suitable apples are hard to find. In the sales areas, the wholesale market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and consumption is slow due to quality, price, and the impact of seasonal fruits [5] - In Shandong Qixia, the prices of 80 first - and second - grade sliced red apples are 3.50 - 4.00 yuan/jin, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples are 3.70 - 4.50 yuan/jin, general apples are 2.80 - 3.30 yuan/jin, and third - grade apples are 2.00 - 2.50 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the prices of orchard - owner general apples starting from 70 are 4.3 - 4.5 yuan/jin, merchant apples above 70 are 4.3 - 4.60 yuan/jin, above 75 are 4.5 - 5.0 yuan/jin, and 70 high - grade inferior apples are 3.10 - 3.30 yuan/jin [5] 2. Supply Analysis - As of July 3, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 6.88%, down 0.69 percentage points this period, and 3.59 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The de - stocking rate is 89.18%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 11.25%, down 1.06 percentage points, and the shipment volume and trading volume increase slightly. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 6.39%, down 0.64 percentage points, and there is almost no trading in cold - storage [10] - As of July 9, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas is 91.49 tons, a decrease of 7.81 tons from last week, and the sales speed is still slower than the same period last year [10] 3. Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles decreases slightly. The market is affected by seasonal fruits, the arrival volume is low, and the terminal consumption slows down. The secondary and tertiary wholesalers purchase on demand [13] - On July 11, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is 7.45 yuan/kg, slightly lower than last Friday, and is at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [13] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin from last week [13] 4. Trading Strategies - The trading logic is that the current market inventory is low, demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [14] - For single - side trading, AP10 is expected to fluctuate in a range, and low - buying and high - selling can be considered. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, selling put options is recommended [14] Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Apple Supply and Demand Situation - Data on apple exports, planting area, and consumption are presented in graphical form, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [17] 2. Inventory and Shipment - Graphs show the cold - storage inventory trends of apples in the whole country, Shandong, and Shaanxi from 2016/17 to 2024/25, as well as the national cold - storage apple shipment trends during the same period [19][21] 3. Spread and Basis - Graphs show the 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 10 spread, 10 - 1 spread, 1 - month basis, 5 - month basis, and 10 - month basis of apples from 2019 to 2025 [24]