银河期货油脂日报-20250715

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, it is expected that the oils and fats will fluctuate in a narrow range. YP09 spread narrowing strategy can consider partial profit - taking, and after it widens, continue to consider narrowing at high levels. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing price of soybean oil 2509 is 8012 with a rise of 18, palm oil is 8708 with a fall of 40, and rapeseed oil is 9404 with a fall of 20. The basis of different varieties and regions shows various changes, such as soybean oil's basis in Zhangjiagang is 190 with a - 10 change [3] - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: For the 9 - 1 monthly spread, soybean oil is 46 with a rise of 12, palm oil is 16 with a fall of 14, and rapeseed oil is 68 with a fall of 13 [3] - Cross - Variety Spreads: For the 09 contract, Y - P is - 696 with a rise of 58, OI - Y is 1392, OI - P is 696 with a rise of 20, and the oil - meal ratio is 2.69 with a rise of 0.02 [3] - Import Profits: The 24 - degree palm oil's disk profit from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 165, and the disk profit of European rapeseed oil is - 642 [3] - Weekly Commercial Inventory: As of the 28th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory is 104.94 million tons, palm oil is 56.3 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 70.6 million tons [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: ITS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16%, and Amspec estimates a 5.29% decrease. Compared with the first 10 days, exports decreased [5] - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 56.3 million tons, a 5.21% increase from last week. It is expected to fluctuate, and one can consider buying on dips [5] - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 104.94 million tons, a 2.91% increase from last week. It is expected to be in a short - term shock [6] - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: As of July 11, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 70.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons from last week. It is expected to be in a large - range shock, and one should pay attention to ship purchases and policy changes [8][10] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [11] - Arbitrage: YP09 spread narrowing can consider partial profit - taking, and continue to consider narrowing at high levels after it widens [12] - Options: Wait and see [13] 3.4 Related Attachments - There are 8 figures showing the basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different oils and fats from 2016 - 2025 [16][19]