鸡蛋周报：库存有所下降，蛋价有所企稳-20250715

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Egg Weekly Report: Inventory Declines, Egg Prices Stabilize [1] - Industry: Egg Industry - Researcher: Liu Qiannan - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 - Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014425 Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Egg prices have stabilized after a decline, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is a peak-season contract, and prices are expected to rise after hitting bottom as the rainy season ends and food factories stock up before the Mid-Autumn Festival [16] Group 4: Content Summary by Section 4.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.58 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 2.79 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from last Friday. Egg prices were under pressure due to high temperature, high humidity, school holidays, and an increase in newly laid eggs. However, after hitting a new low for the year, the decline may be limited, and some low-price areas saw a rebound at the end of the week. The price of old hens fluctuated strongly [5] 4.2 Supply Analysis - This week, the shipping volume in the producing areas decreased slightly month-on-month. From July 4 - 11, the national main producing areas' egg chicken culling volume was 16270000, a decrease of 5% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 504 days, a decrease of 2 days from the previous week. In June, the national in-laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The monthly egg chicken chick output of sample enterprises was 40.75 million, a month-on-month decrease of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the in-laying hen inventory from July to October 2025 is estimated to be 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [9] 4.3 Cost Analysis - As of July 11, the corn price was around 2421 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 2924 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2572 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.82 yuan/jin of egg feed cost. Corn and soybean meal prices decreased slightly this week, leading to a slight decrease in egg chicken breeding costs. Egg prices stabilized after a decline, but the average weekly egg price decreased month-on-month, so the loss of egg chicken breeding continued to expand. As of July 10, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was -0.68 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week. On July 4, the expected profit of egg chicken breeding was 13.38 yuan/bird, a decrease of 0.46 yuan/jin from the previous week [12] 4.4 Demand Analysis - The sales volume in the selling areas increased first and then decreased this week, with a month-on-month decrease in the total sales volume. As of July 4, the sales volume of representative selling areas was 7606 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week. The national egg market inventory decreased slightly month-on-month. As of July 4, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.17 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous week. This week, the vegetable price index rebounded, and the pork price index changed little [15] 4.5 Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Recent egg prices have stabilized at the current level, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is a peak-season contract, and prices are expected to rise after hitting bottom. - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [16]