Haitong Securities International·2025-07-15 23:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for ANTA Sports is maintained at OUTPERFORM with a target price of HK$109.40, representing a potential upside of 21.8% from the current price of HK$89.80 [2][8]. Core Insights - In 2Q25, the retail revenue of ANTA Sports' brands met market expectations, with the company maintaining its annual revenue guidance. The ANTA brand achieved low single-digit positive growth year-on-year, while FILA brand saw medium single-digit growth [3][13]. - The company is optimistic about achieving high single-digit growth for the full year, supported by the implementation of the offline lighthouse plan and optimization of e-commerce management [3][16]. - The performance of other brands, such as Descente and Kolon, showed significant growth, with retail revenue increasing by 50-55% year-on-year [5][15]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - ANTA brand's retail revenue showed low single-digit growth, with offline adult and children's sales increasing by low single digits, while online sales grew by medium single digits. The growth was lower than expected due to intensified competition and channel upgrades [3][13]. - FILA brand's retail revenue achieved medium single-digit growth, with strong performance in categories like golf and tennis [3][14]. New Business Development - ANTA's new business model has improved store efficiency, with champion stores showing 70-80% higher efficiency than traditional stores. The company is also focusing on younger consumers through smaller, more efficient store formats [4][14]. - The online team has been integrated to enhance e-commerce performance, with expectations of recovery in the second half of the year [4][16]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for ANTA Sports are set at RMB 79.17 billion, RMB 88.06 billion, and RMB 97.66 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.8%, 11.2%, and 10.9% [8][16]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is RMB 13.56 billion, RMB 15.53 billion, and RMB 17.66 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.9X, 14.8X, and 13.0X [8][16].