高盛：中国_ 70 城数据显示 6 月一线城市房价加速下跌

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative trend in the property market, with a weighted average property price decline of 2.5% month-over-month annualized in June, following a decline of 2.3% in May [2][7]. Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data for 70 cities shows a broad-based decline in property prices across all city tiers, with year-on-year changes reflecting a decrease of 3.1% in June compared to 3.5% in May [2][7]. - Despite easing policies, the property market continues to face challenges, particularly in lower-tier cities, which are experiencing stronger headwinds due to oversupply issues and weaker growth fundamentals [8][7]. - The report highlights that secondary market prices have declined by 5%-15% over the past year, indicating a more severe downturn compared to the primary market [7][8]. Summary by Sections Price Changes - The weighted average property price in the primary market fell by 2.5% month-over-month annualized in June, with Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities experiencing declines of 1.3% and 2.1% respectively [2][7]. - The decline in Tier-3 cities was noted at 3.5% month-over-month annualized, consistent with the previous month [7]. Market Dynamics - The report mentions a 4% year-on-year decline in new home transaction volume across 30 cities in June, with inventory months in major cities increasing slightly to 26.0 in July from 25.5 in June, primarily driven by Tier-2 cities [8][7]. - Policymakers are attempting to stabilize the property market through various measures, including potential cuts to mortgage rates and support for urban village renovation programs [8][7]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates incremental housing easing measures to stabilize home prices, although a repeat of the previous shantytown redevelopment program is deemed unlikely [8][7].