高盛：石油分析 2025 年油价将走坚；维持 2026 年油价更低预测

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook for oil prices, expecting a decline by 2026, while noting potential upside risks for 2025H2 [65]. Core Insights - Brent oil price has increased over 10% to $70 due to a shift in market focus from recession risks to supply disruption risks, low OECD stocks, and declining perceived spare capacity [8][10]. - The 2025H2 Brent price forecast has been raised by $5 to $66, while the 2026 forecast remains unchanged at $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI, reflecting a balance between higher long-dated prices and a wider surplus [19][34]. - The normalization of spare capacity is expected to lead to a rebound in prices after 2026, driven by low oil reserve life, declining capital expenditures, and anticipated demand growth over the next decade [61][62]. Summary by Sections Price Forecasts - The Brent price forecast for 2025H2 is increased to $66, and WTI is raised to $63, while the 2026 averages are maintained at $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI [19][34]. - The report anticipates a 1.0 million barrels per day (mb/d) surplus in 2025 and a wider 1.7 mb/d surplus in 2026, influenced by OPEC+ production adjustments [41][68]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2025 and 0.9 mb/d in 2026, with notable increases in non-OECD demand [41][68]. - OECD commercial stocks are expected to remain lower than anticipated, impacting short-term price dynamics more than global stocks [21][22]. Market Risks and Scenarios - Price risks are more balanced, with potential upside scenarios including reduced Iranian supply, which could push Brent prices to a peak of $90 [49][53]. - Conversely, a full unwind of OPEC cuts could lead to Brent prices falling to around $40 in a recession scenario [49][54]. Long-Term Outlook - The report expresses confidence in a price rebound post-2026 due to tightening supply drivers, including low oil reserve life and a lack of new non-OPEC projects [61][62]. - The normalization in spare capacity is expected to support higher prices later in the decade, despite short-term excess supply [60][61].