高盛：中国_ 中央城市工作会议凸显长期方向；预计未来房地产放松幅度有限

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest property easing expectation for the second half of the year and beyond, aligning with incremental policy support rather than a large-scale stimulus similar to the 2015-2018 period [1][2][8]. Core Insights - The Central Urban Work Conference (CUWC) outlined key policy priorities for urban development, including urbanization facilitation, innovation encouragement, urban village renovation, a new real estate development model, improved urban infrastructure, and a green transition [1][2]. - The report suggests that the previous cash-backed shantytown redevelopment program is unlikely to be repeated due to reduced fiscal easing space, recognition of past housing boom costs, and persistently low urban housing demand [3][8]. Summary by Sections Policy Priorities - The CUWC emphasized urbanization, innovation, urban village renovation, a new real estate model, enhanced urban infrastructure, and green transition as critical areas for future development [1][2]. Property Market Outlook - The report anticipates modest property easing, with expectations for further mortgage rate reductions and targeted policy support for urban infrastructure and housing inventory purchases [8]. - It is projected that urban housing demand may remain below 5 million units per year for the foreseeable future, influenced by demographic trends and previous market speculation [7][14]. Economic Context - With H1 real GDP growth averaging 5.3% year-on-year, there is no immediate need for broad-based stimulus, leading to expectations of targeted easing measures to address property market downturns and labor market pressures [8].