光大证券晨会速递-20250716

Macro Analysis - The overall performance of the demand side is stable, but the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment has significantly declined due to high temperatures, further decline in PPI, and a complex external environment, leading to more cautious investment decisions by market entities [2] - In June, financial data showed strong performance, driven by seasonal factors and the weakening of the corporate credit demand squeeze effect as special refinancing bonds approached their end [3] - In June, exports increased by 5.8%, mainly due to resilience in non-U.S. exports and "export grabbing" to the U.S., with expectations of slight pressure on exports in the second half of the year [4] Banking Sector - In June, loan issuance surged, with new social financing reaching 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2 percentage points to 8.9% compared to the end of May, indicating a seasonal strengthening of credit activity [5] - The M2-M1 gap has narrowed, suggesting a potential for continued positive performance in bank sector stock prices [5] Real Estate Sector - In the first half of 2025, the transaction area of residential properties in 30 core cities decreased by 5% year-on-year, while the average transaction price increased by 4% [7] - The divergence in regional and city performance is deepening, with investment recommendations focusing on structural alpha opportunities [7] Company Research - For Chengzhi Co., Ltd., the expected net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 15 million and 22 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 88.24% to 91.98% [8] - Puyang Huicheng's net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 305 million yuan due to slower-than-expected growth in active magnesium oxide business [9] - Keda Manufacturing expects a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by overseas expansion and price increases in building materials [10] - Yiling Pharmaceutical's self-developed product has been approved for sale in Macau, indicating a positive trend in the company's performance and R&D efforts [11]