中债策略周报-20250716

Group 1 - The bond market experienced a rebound with long-term government bonds (10-year and 30-year) rising by 2.5 basis points to 1.67% and 1.88% respectively, while the 1-year government bond increased by 3.4 basis points to 1.37% [3][12][15] - The CPI for June showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the PPI decreased by 3.6%, indicating a widening decline primarily due to falling prices in the black series and construction materials [6][42] - The central bank's recent actions included a net withdrawal of 1.7 trillion yuan from the open market, with a focus on reverse repos, and a net payment of 0.3 trillion yuan in government bonds [39][42] Group 2 - The bond market outlook for July suggests limited negative factors, with a preference for high cost-performance varieties, as the fundamental data remains mixed [41][42] - The bond yield curve shows a steepening in the 3-5 year segment and a flattening in the 5-7 year segment, indicating that the 5-year point may serve as a key target for leverage strategies [6][41] - The issuance of local government bonds reached 231.8 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of 130.3 billion yuan, while national bonds issued amounted to 293.2 billion yuan, netting 193.1 billion yuan [20][39]