Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A - share market on July 15, 2025 showed mixed trends among the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.73%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 1612.1 billion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The short - term supply - demand relationship of coking coal and coke is good. Although the iron water is falling, the demand support remains as the total amount is still high, and the inventories of coking plants and mines are significantly decreasing [5]. - For Zheng sugar, influenced by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng sugar 2509 contract oscillated downward on July 15 [5]. - The domestic soybean meal market has increasing supply pressure at the spot end, but there is support for the far - month contract due to the large order gap of imported soybeans after September [8]. - The terminal market for live pigs is in the off - season, with insufficient downstream demand. The medium - and long - term supply pressure still exists, and the futures market lacks upward momentum [8]. - Palm oil maintained a high - level oscillating trend on July 15, reaching a recent high and then quickly falling back [9]. - The price of Shanghai copper may continue to oscillate. It may fluctuate in the range of 77800 - 78500 yuan/ton. Standing above 78000 yuan/ton may lead to further upward exploration, while falling below 77800 yuan/ton may trigger a short - term correction [9]. - The domestic construction steel market is in the off - season, and the short - term supply - demand weak pattern is difficult to change, with prices likely to continue to oscillate weakly [11]. - The price of alumina is supported to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the medium - term supply is loose, and the upward space is limited [12]. - The spot market for Shanghai aluminum has a light trading volume, and the overall trading momentum is insufficient [12]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 15, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3505 points, down 0.42%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10744.56 points, up 0.56%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2235.05 points, up 1.73%. The trading volume in the two markets reached 1612.1 billion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4019.06, up 1.4 [1][2]. Coking Coal and Coke - On July 15, the coking coal weighted index closed at 927.9 yuan, up 2.4, and the coke weighted index closed at 1522.3, down 10.1. The fundamentals are strong, with significant inventory reduction. The supply of coking coal and coke is increasing, while the demand is weakening as the iron water falls. The inventories of coking plants and mines are actively decreasing by 7.22% and 8.83% respectively [3][4][5]. Zheng Sugar - Affected by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zheng sugar 2509 contract oscillated downward on July 15. In the 2024/2025 sugar - cane crushing season, the sugar - cane planting area in Yunnan increased by 6.8% year - on - year, the first stop of the decline in 10 years [5]. Rubber - Shanghai rubber rose first and then fell on July 15, closing slightly higher. It was affected by rainfall in the Thai production area in the morning and then fell due to the expectation of weak future consumption. At night, it oscillated slightly lower due to short - selling pressure. Vietnam's rubber exports in June increased by 47.8% month - on - month, and from January to June, the exports decreased by 4.6% year - on - year. Indonesia's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first five months increased by 14% year - on - year [5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 15, the CBOT soybean futures price closed slightly lower. The weather conditions in the US Midwest are favorable, and the US soybean good - quality rate is higher than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.19 million tons. Domestically, on July 15, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2978 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The supply pressure at the spot end is increasing, but there is support for the far - month contract [6][8]. Live Pigs - On July 15, the main live - pig contract LH2509 closed at 14250 yuan/ton, down 0.25%. The terminal market is in the off - season, and the medium - and long - term supply pressure still exists, with the futures market lacking upward momentum [8]. Palm Oil - On July 15, palm oil maintained a high - level oscillating trend, reaching a recent high and then quickly falling back. The closing price was 8708 yuan, down 0.46% from the previous trading day [9]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper is under pressure. It may continue to oscillate in the range of 77800 - 78500 yuan/ton. Standing above 78000 yuan/ton may lead to further upward exploration, while falling below 77800 yuan/ton may trigger a short - term correction [9]. Cotton - On the night of July 15, the main Zheng cotton contract closed at 13945 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation of Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 21 lots compared with the previous day [10]. Logs - On July 15, the 2509 log contract opened at 786.5, with the lowest at 785.5, the highest at 793.5, and closed at 790, with a reduction of 823 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. From January to June, China's imports of logs and sawn timber decreased by 12% year - on - year [10]. Steel - On July 15, the rb2510 steel contract closed at 3114 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 closed at 3259 yuan/ton. The actual spot transaction price followed the decline, and the short - term supply - demand weak pattern is difficult to change, with prices likely to continue to oscillate weakly [11]. Alumina - On July 15, the ao2509 alumina contract closed at 3165 yuan/ton. The price is supported to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the medium - term supply is loose, and the upward space is limited [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On July 15, the al2508 Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 20430 yuan/ton. The spot market has a light trading volume, and the overall trading momentum is insufficient [12].
国新国证期货早报-20250716
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-07-16 01:37