宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250716

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is currently facing a weakening fundamental situation. PX supply has no positive support, and with the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream开工. PTA has new device commissioning expectations and weak demand in the off - season, and its processing fee has fallen below 200 yuan/ton. The polyester bottle - sheet market has sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream Products: On July 15, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.69% and 0.72% respectively. The spot prices of naphtha, xylene, and PX also declined, with the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea dropping by 3.17% [1] - PTA Products: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE TA contracts decreased, and the spot price of domestic PTA dropped by 0.36%. The CCFEI price index of PTA inner - plate decreased by 0.49%, while the outer - plate increased by 1.60%. The near - far month spread was 14 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 21 yuan/ton [1] - PX Products: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PX contracts decreased, and the spot price of domestic PX remained unchanged. The PXN spread decreased slightly by 0.16%, while the PX - MX spread increased by 8.84%. The basis increased by 90 yuan/ton [1] - PR Products: The closing and settlement prices of CZCE PR contracts decreased, and the market prices of polyester bottle - sheet in the East China and South China markets declined. The basis in the East China and South China markets increased by 20 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream Products: The CCFEI price indices of most downstream polyester products remained unchanged or decreased slightly, with the price index of polyester short - fiber dropping by 0.08% [2] Production and Sales Information - Operating Rates: On July 15, 2025, the operating rates of the PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - sheet factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged [1] - Sales Ratios: The sales ratios of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips decreased on July 15, 2025, with the sales ratio of polyester staple fiber dropping by 33 percentage points and that of polyester chips dropping by 112 percentage points [1] Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 3.3 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng New Materials reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Important News - International Crude Oil: Market expectations for the US statement on sanctions against Russia drove up oil prices, but due to the time window for negotiations, the risk of short - term supply disruption of Russian oil was limited, and oil prices fell after giving up gains. PTA will commission new devices in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing a solid bottom support [2] - PX: PX supply has no positive support, and with the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream开工. On July 15, the PX CFR China price was 838 US dollars/ton. Affected by the tariff issue, international oil prices fluctuated and declined, squeezing the cost momentum of PX. The domestic PX is still in the de - stocking cycle, and there is obvious wait - and - see sentiment in the market [2] - PTA: The decline in crude oil prices weakens the cost support for PTA. Except for some large polyester manufacturers purchasing PTA spot, the overall atmosphere is average. Currently, the PTA processing fee has fallen below the 200 - yuan/ton range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to the expected commissioning of new devices on the supply side and the off - season on the demand side [2] - Polyester Bottle - Sheet: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - sheet in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle - sheet futures are running weakly, and the supply - side quotations of bottle - sheet are a mix of stability and decline. Recently, the supply - side operating rate of bottle - sheet has continued to operate at a low level, and the market supply is abundant. Downstream end - users' procurement maintains the rigid demand, and the market sentiment is cautious [2] Trading Strategy - PTA oscillated lower, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4696 yuan/ton (- 0.63%) and the daily trading volume of 1.01 million lots. PX prices returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6688 yuan/ton (- 0.89%) and the daily trading volume of 214,600 lots. PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5870 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) and the daily trading volume of 40,900 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]