宏源期货品种策略日报-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The market of ethylene glycol is in a state of complex supply - demand relationship and price fluctuations. The price of ethylene glycol has experienced significant adjustments, with both domestic and foreign markets showing different trends. The downstream polyester industry's production and sales are uneven, and the cost support and demand outlook of ethylene glycol are also changing. The supply side is affected by factors such as equipment maintenance and geopolitical impacts, while the demand side is influenced by the purchasing intentions of downstream factories [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Information Price Information - Domestic Market: On July 16, 2025, the price of domestic ethylene glycol was 583.75 US dollars/ton, up 2.22% from the previous day; the price of ethylene oxide in the East China region was 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of methanol was 2385 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of brown coal in Inner Mongolia was 290 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The settlement price of the main contract of ethylene glycol was 4338 US dollars/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day [1]. - Foreign Market: The price of foreign - produced ethylene glycol was 116.11 US dollars/ton on July 14, 2025, and the price of ethylene glycol produced from ethylene in the foreign market was 116.6 US dollars/ton on the same day [1]. Market Transaction and Trend - Ethylene Glycol Market: The domestic ethylene glycol market has wide - range price adjustments, with high - level price drops at night. The overall market is in a state of shock. The domestic market has narrow - range fluctuations, with transactions mainly around 686 - 690 US dollars/ton. The foreign market has narrow - range adjustments, with transactions mainly around 13 - 15 US dollars/ton in the morning. New cargo transactions in the afternoon are mainly around 513 - 514 US dollars/ton [2]. - Downstream Industry: The prices of polyester products such as polyester filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester chips have changed, with production and sales showing different situations. Polyester filament production and sales are light, while some polyester production and sales are still acceptable. Most downstream factories are still in a state of waiting and observing, and the overall demand is weak [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side: Multiple ethylene glycol units have completed maintenance and started to increase production, and the supply scale has gradually increased. At the same time, geopolitical impacts have eased, and the supply situation has improved [2]. - Demand Side: The downstream polyester industry's demand is weak. Most downstream factories are still waiting and observing, and the willingness to purchase raw materials is insufficient. With the weakening of oil prices, the cost support for ethylene glycol is also weakening [2].