宝城期货原油早报-20250716

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - The crude oil market shows a weakening trend in the short - term and maintains a volatile pattern in the medium - term. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract is expected to run weakly on Wednesday [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile, and the overall short - term is in a volatile state [1] - Medium - term: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is volatile, and the medium - term remains in a volatile pattern [1] - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is volatile and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - Positive Factors: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East still exists, increasing the crude oil premium. After a previous significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted crude oil demand [5] - Negative Factors: Eight major OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries have decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. However, as the negative impact of increased production is gradually digested and the original production - increase plan of oil - producing countries is gradually realized, the room for further production expansion in the future is limited [5] 3.3 Market Performance - On Tuesday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained a volatile and weak trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.73% to 505.6 yuan per barrel [5]