合成橡胶：小幅回调

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market shows a slight correction. The short - term trend of butadiene rubber is mainly range - bound, with the upside space narrowing. The macro - sentiment provides support, but the industrial chain fundamentals face significant pressure [1][3]. - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate. The upper valuation limit of the market is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is around 11,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract), the daily closing price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 11,535 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 26,899 lots to 101,885 lots, the open interest decreased by 1,690 lots to 22,739 lots, and the trading volume increased by 155,996 ten - thousand yuan to 590,450 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - Spread Data: The basis (Shandong butadiene - futures main contract) increased by 90 to 115, the monthly spread (BR08 - BR09) increased by 35 to 55. The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) were 11,400 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), 11,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [1]. - Spot Market: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,650 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) remained unchanged at 10,900 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton and 35 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Fundamentals: The butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 0.17% to 65.2894%, the theoretical full cost remained unchanged at 12,079 yuan/ton, and the profit remained unchanged at - 379 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate due to the short - term improvement in butadiene trading. The upper valuation limit of the market is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is around 11,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. - In the short term, butadiene rubber will mainly operate in a range - bound manner, with the upside space narrowing. The recent rebound in butadiene rubber futures prices is mainly driven by the improvement in macro - sentiment and the continuous rebound of crude oil, but the spot trading is light, and the fundamentals of the industrial chain face significant pressure [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].