中国二季度GDP同比超预期，马来棕榈油出口环比减少

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including finance and commodities. In the financial sector, factors such as inflation data, trade agreements, and central bank policies influence the performance of assets like gold, the US dollar, and stocks. In the commodity sector, supply - demand dynamics, production data, and policy changes impact prices of metals, energy, and agricultural products. Overall, different assets are expected to have diverse trends such as some being in a short - term upward movement, some in a downward trend, and others in a state of oscillation [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Nvidia is applying to resell H20 GPUs, and the US government assures to grant the license. US CPI rebounded in June, with inflation data influencing gold prices. Gold is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump reached a trade deal with Indonesia, lowering the tariff rate to 19%. US CPI data in June was in line with expectations, with inflation rising and the US dollar index expected to continue rising in the short term [15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Central Urban Work Conference was held, emphasizing the transformation of urban development. China's Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia, and US core CPI in June rose 2.9% year - on - year. The impact of tariffs is emerging, and the stock index is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to control positions carefully [21][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. China's Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%, higher than expected. The bond market is expected to turn stronger gradually in the coming months [25][27]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 15, the price difference between imported and domestic steam coal was presented. Due to high - temperature weather, coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [30]. 2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's Q2 iron ore production and shipment data were released. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate as the market sentiment eases [31]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - NOPA's June soybean crushing was higher than expected. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to US soybean产区 weather and Sino - US relations [33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar export in the first two weeks of July decreased. Pakistan canceled a large - scale sugar import tender. The sugar price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the processing sugar quotation [35][38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The oil market is expected to decline slightly, and a YP spread widening strategy can be considered [41]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's infrastructure investment in H1 increased by 4.6%. Steel prices are expected to have limited upward space, and a rebound hedging strategy is recommended for the spot market [42][44]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - New Hope's expected H1 2025 net profit increased. The hog price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended for the 09 contract [46][47]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions had different profit situations. The starch price is expected to be stable, and the CS - C spread has high uncertainty [48]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of the corn auction on July 15 decreased. Corn prices are expected to oscillate, and short positions on new - crop corn can be considered [49][51]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was presented. The lead price is expected to have support at the moving average, and long positions can be considered on dips [52]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A zinc smelter in central China plans to conduct maintenance in August. The zinc price is expected to be under pressure, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [54][55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Lockheed Martin plans to restart seabed mining. China's copper production increased. The copper price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [57][59]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia and the EU have no disputes over nickel mining policies. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [61][63]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sayona's lithium project drilling results were positive. Lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short term, and long positions on dips can be considered [64]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU plans to expand the CBAM scope. The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term [66]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - On July 15, the PX price declined. The PX price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [68]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price declined, and the basis was stable. The PTA price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [70][72]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A styrene plant in Shandong resumed production. The styrene price is expected to oscillate downward, and potential layout opportunities should be observed [73]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts. The bottle chip price is expected to have a short - term relief in supply pressure, and opportunities to expand the processing margin can be considered [74][77]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased sporadically. The caustic soda price is expected to have difficulty rising further after the basis has been adjusted [77][78]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp price was stable. The pulp price is expected to have limited upward space as the supply - demand situation remains unchanged [79][80]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market was slightly weaker. The PVC price is expected to have limited upward space as the fundamentals are weakening [81][82]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in the Shahe market was stable. The glass price is expected to have a trading range of [900, 1100] yuan/ton, and a long - glass short - soda ash strategy is recommended [83][84]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in North China was stable. The soda ash price is expected to be sold short on rallies in the medium term [85][86]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's June production increased, and China's June crude oil processing volume rebounded. The crude oil price is expected to oscillate in the short term [87][88]. 2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Shipping companies adjusted their US - East routes. The container freight rate is expected to have short - selling opportunities for the EC2510 contract and 10 - 12 reverse spread opportunities [90][92].