SHREG(SZ:000803) Tianfeng Securities·2025-07-16 01:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [7][19]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in its financial performance, with a forecasted net profit of 0.4-0.45 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 214.28%-228.56% year-on-year [1][2]. - The increase in demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is driving up the price of Used Cooking Oil (UCO), which is a key raw material for the company [3][4]. - The company has a strong order book, with many well-known domestic and international biofuel companies inquiring about orders, indicating robust market demand [4]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 0.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 222.23%. The projected net profit for Q2 2025 is estimated to be between 0.12-0.17 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 0.44 billion yuan in the same period last year [2]. - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.11 billion yuan, 16.51 billion yuan, and 18.88 billion yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of -2.62%, 17%, and 14.36% [4][6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is 1.00 billion yuan, with significant growth rates of 668.27%, 57.94%, and 39.45% for the following years [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The demand for SAF is expected to increase significantly due to new regulations in the EU and UK, which will require a 2% blending of SAF starting January 2025, potentially leading to an additional demand of approximately 1.8 million tons of UCO [3]. - The Chinese government is actively supporting the development of biofuels, which is expected to further boost domestic SAF demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][4].