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LPG：短期震荡偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-16 01:51

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating of "Oscillating weakly in the short term" for the LPG industry [1] 2. Core View - The LPG market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For PG2508, the yesterday's closing price was 4,111 with a daily decline of 1.89%, and the night - session closing price was 4,106 with a decline of 0.12%. For PG2509, the yesterday's closing price was 4,012 with a daily decline of 1.98%, and the night - session closing price was 4,016 with an increase of 0.10%. The trading volume of PG2508 yesterday was 81,840, an increase of 33,978 from the previous day, and the position was 44,838, an increase of 1,435. The trading volume of PG2509 yesterday was 34,948, an increase of 18,310 from the previous day, and the position was 49,228, an increase of 7,090 [3] - Spread Data: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 contract was 469 yesterday, compared to 430 the day before. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 08 contract was 499 yesterday, compared to 440 the day before [3] - Industrial Chain Price Data: The PDH operating rate this week was 60.9%, down from 65.5% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 66.9%, up from 65.1% last week. The alkylation operating rate was 43.8%, down from 44.6% last week [3] 3.2 Market News - Saudi CP Expectations: On July 14, 2025, the expected price of propane in the August Saudi CP was 561 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 531 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton. The expected price of propane in the September Saudi CP was 559 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 529 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton [10] - Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans: Many companies have PDH device maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with different start and end times [9]