棉花：维持震荡偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton is to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals of cotton, including futures prices, trading volumes, positions, warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price spreads, as well as macro and industry news, and concludes that the cotton market will maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2509 closed at 13,850 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.18% daily increase, and 13,945 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.69% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,050 yuan/ton yesterday with a -0.35% daily increase, and 20,140 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.45% increase; ICE cotton futures for December closed at 68.57 cents/pound with a 0.68% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 297,507 lots, an increase of 95,684 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 845,684 lots, a decrease of 9,262 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 7,077 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the position was 21,168 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,716, a decrease of 91 compared to the previous day, and the effective forecast was 223, an increase of 7. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 98, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 98 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 15,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan compared to the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine-picked cotton was 14,870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan compared to the previous day; the price in Shandong was 15,264 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan compared to the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,362 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan compared to the previous day; the 3128B index was 15,302 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan compared to the previous day; the international cotton index M was 75.70 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent compared to the previous day; the price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the arrival price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 was 22,109 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Price Spread Data: The CF9 - 1 price spread was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan compared to the previous day; the price spread between Beijiang 3128 machine-picked cotton and CF509 was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot Situation: According to TTEB information, the spot trading of cotton has not improved, and textile enterprises mainly purchase on a need - to - basis, with the overall basis remaining stable. Different regions and varieties have different sales basis quotes [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation: The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has not improved, and the overall atmosphere is dull. Textile enterprises continue to reduce production by lowering the operating rate, and the inventory pressure is gradually increasing. The trading of all - cotton grey cloth is dull, the increase in the grey cloth transaction price is less than that of cotton, and the losses continue. Grey cloth orders are mainly small and scattered, the sales of finished product inventory are scarce, and some weaving factories said that sales improved only after price cuts, and downstream procurement is cautious [2] - US Cotton Situation: ICE cotton futures rose slightly for the second consecutive day. The weather forecast shows that the weather in the US cotton - producing areas will be dry in the next two weeks, which triggered some short - covering [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]