国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The support at the ore end has loosened, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are fluctuating [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: There are supply - side news disturbances, and high volatility may continue [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts have started to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the upside space [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the spot trading situation [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,380 yuan, down 1,720 yuan from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,695 yuan, down 20 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 94,219 lots, an increase of 13,487 lots from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 66,368 lots, a decrease of 26,319 lots from T - 1 [4]. - Industrial Chain: The price of 1 imported nickel was 119,750 yuan, down 1,400 yuan from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 902 yuan, down 2 yuan from T - 1 [4]. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [4]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF successfully produced ferronickel, with a single - line annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel [5]. - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6][8]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of 300 - series production [8]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and possible fines may be imposed on illegal companies [8]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [9]. - The government - approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [9]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [10]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 66,660 yuan, an increase of 180 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 764,028 lots, a decrease of 250,530 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 342,146 lots, a decrease of 14,015 lots from T - 1 [11]. - Industrial Chain: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,900 yuan, an increase of 250 yuan from T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 8,280 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [11]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 64,689 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12]. - On July 15, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology adjusted the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Exporting in China", adding battery cathode material preparation technology [12][13]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,785 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 1,416,898 lots, a decrease of 57,095 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 396,653 lots, a decrease of 6,237 lots from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2508 contract was 42,470 yuan/ton, an increase of 705 yuan from T - 1 [14]. - Price and Profit: The price of East - China oxygen - passed Si5530 was 9,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan from T - 1; the profit of Xinjiang's new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 2,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan from T - 1 [14]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 55.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from T - 5; the polysilicon factory inventory was 27.6 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons from T - 5 [14]. Macro and Industry News - The Hanyuan Yongli Township and Jiaodingshan photovoltaic power generation projects invested by a subsidiary of the National Energy Group were successfully put into operation. The Yongli Township project has a capacity of 130MW and an annual power generation of 167 million kWh [15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 0 [16].