国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250716

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, urea, benzene, styrene, and soda ash are rated as "Weak" or "Weakly Bearish" [2][37][63][64] - MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and LPG are rated as "Neutral" [2][12][13] - Asphalt is rated as "Weakly Bearish" [23][32] - The container shipping index (European line) has specific strategies of holding 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [88] 2. Core Views - For PX, the supply is still tight, and it's recommended not to chase short positions in the single - side market, but to take long positions in the calendar spread. Attention should be paid to the compression of forward PXN [12] - PTA is facing increased supply and decreased demand. It's advised not to chase short positions, and to take long positions in the calendar spread. Consider long PX short PTA and long PR short PTA in the 01 contract [12] - MEG is expected to have a bullish single - side market and a long calendar spread strategy due to low inventory and limited import growth [13] - For synthetic rubber, it's expected to have a valuation - based range - bound pattern with narrowed upside space [20][22] - Asphalt is in a range - bound state with a slightly bearish trend [23][32] - LLDPE is expected to have a weakly bearish trend due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand [37][38] - PP has loose spot prices and light trading volume, with a neutral trend [41][42] - Caustic soda is expected to have a short - term range - bound pattern due to cost decline and seasonal demand weakness [44][46] - Pulp is in a range - bound state with high port inventory and weak demand [51][52] - Glass has stable spot prices, and the market is relatively stable [54][55] - Methanol is expected to have a short - term range - bound pattern due to reduced supply and demand [57][59] - Urea is expected to have a short - term range - bound and possibly bearish intraday trend due to weak domestic demand and export support [61][62] - Benzene and styrene are in a weakly bearish state, and attention should be paid to compressing the profit of styrene [64][65] - Soda ash has little change in the spot market and is expected to have a low - level range - bound pattern [66][68] - LPG is expected to have a short - term weakly bearish trend [71][73] - PVC is expected to have a weakly bearish trend due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [81][82] - Fuel oil had a sharp decline during the day session and may stabilize in the short - term, while low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weak [86] - The container shipping index (European line) suggests holding 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [88] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - Market Overview: On July 15, PX price dropped, and Asian crude oil futures declined. The demand for polyester chains in Asia continued to pressure upstream PX and PTA. PTA spot price fell, and MEG had specific trading prices and arrival plans [6][8][9] - Trend Intensity: All are rated as 0 (Neutral) [11] - Views and Suggestions: PX supply is tight, PTA faces supply - demand imbalance, and MEG has low inventory and limited import growth [12][13] Rubber - Fundamental Tracking: The futures market had changes in price, volume, and open interest. The spot market had price changes in different varieties. The trend intensity is 0 (Neutral) [15] - Industry News: Vietnam's natural rubber exports in June 2025 increased compared to May but decreased year - on - year. The imports also had specific changes [18][19] Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Tracking: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The trend intensity is 0 (Neutral) [20] - Industry News: The static and dynamic valuation ranges of cis - butadiene rubber were analyzed, and it's expected to have a range - bound pattern [20][22] Asphalt - Fundamental Tracking: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The trend intensity is - 1 (Weakly Bearish) [24][32] - Market News: The domestic asphalt factory and social inventories had different changes, and the weekly production increased [36] LLDPE - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The market price of LLDPE partially declined [37] - Market Analysis: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak, with a weakly bearish trend [38] PP - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The spot price is loose, and trading is light [41] - Trend Intensity: 0 (Neutral) [42] Caustic Soda - Fundamental Tracking: Futures and spot prices had specific values. The market in Shandong was stable with some price adjustments [44][45] - Market Analysis: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the seasonal off - peak, with a short - term range - bound pattern [46] Pulp - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The trend intensity is 0 (Neutral) [51] - Industry News: The pulp price was stable, with high port inventory and weak demand [52] Glass - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The spot price of float glass was stable [55] - Trend Intensity: 0 (Neutral) [55] Methanol - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The spot price index increased slightly [57][59] - Market Analysis: The supply and demand are both decreasing, and it's expected to have a short - term range - bound pattern [59] Urea - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The inventory decreased in some areas and increased in others [61][62] - Industry News: The domestic inventory decreased, and it's expected to have a short - term range - bound and possibly bearish intraday trend [62][63] Benzene and Styrene - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices and spreads had changes. The spot market of styrene is in a state of high production, high profit, and high inventory [64][65] - Trend Intensity: - 1 (Weakly Bearish) [64] Soda Ash - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The spot market changed little [68] - Trend Intensity: - 1 (Weakly Bearish) [69] LPG - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The开工 rates of related industries had fluctuations [73] - Market News: There were specific expectations for Saudi CP prices, and many PDH devices had maintenance plans [79][80] - Trend Intensity: 0 (Neutral) [78] PVC - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, spot prices, and spreads had specific values. New devices were put into trial production [81] - Market Analysis: It has a high - production and high - inventory structure, with a weakly bearish trend [82] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices had changes. The low - sulfur fuel oil continued to be weak [86] - Trend Intensity: 0 (Neutral) [86] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Fundamental Tracking: Futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and freight rates had changes. There were specific information about shipping schedules and capacity [88][91] - Strategy: Hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [88]